USDA reports unchanged grain supplies, adjusts corn and soybean exports
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WASHINGTON, June 12, 2012- According to the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), for 2012/13, U.S. feed grain supplies are virtually unchanged and projected 2012/13 season average price ranges for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged.
The WASDE report released today is one of the first data reports during the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's expanded trading hours. CME, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange recently adopted a 21-hour electronic trading day.
In line with several market analysts, the June WASDE report projects increased corn use for ethanol, but lower exports. The report adjusts corn usage for ethanol in 2011/12, which is projected 50 million bushels higher.
“The higher corn use projection assumes slightly lower ethanol production during the June-August quarter as compared with the same period last year,” states the report. “Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower as shipments and sales continue to fall off of the pace needed to reach last month's projection.”
World corn production for 2012/2013 is increased 4.2 million tons this month. Global corn consumption is increased 2.4 million tons and global corn ending stocks are projected 3.4 million tons higher. Of the increase, 2.0 million tons are for China and 1.0 million tons are for Brazil.
“Tight domestic supplies and increased competition, especially from Brazil, are also expected to reduce U.S. export prospects during the summer months,” according to the report. “Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are unchanged, as is the 2011/12 season average farm price which remains at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel.”
WASDE's soybean projections include lower beginning and ending stocks with adjusted higher soybean exports for 2011/12 raised 20 million by demand from China. With reduced supplies for this coming year, 2012/13, soybean exports are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down 20 million. Soybean crush is also projected lower due to reduced domestic soybean meal use, stated the report.
Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 35 million. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Soybean, meal, and oil price projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month. The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $335 to $365 per ton and 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound, respectively.
Brazil's 2011/12 soybean production is increased 0.5 million tons to 65.5 million while Argentina soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 41.5 million. For 2012/13, global oilseed production is down 0.7 million from last month.
June cotton estimates in the U.S. for 2011/12 and 2012/13 show small revisions in trade, which leave 2012/13 ending stocks unchanged from last month.
The 2012/13 production estimate of 17.0 million bales also is unchanged, pending further information about planted area and weather developments, WASDE reported. 2012/13 world cotton production is down 1.4 million bales and world consumption is down one million bales.
“The most significant revisions to the world 2011/12 cotton estimates include an increase of nearly 1.8 million bales in China's imports, reflecting the continued strong pace of deliveries, and corresponding increases in exports for India, Brazil, Australia, the United States, and Malaysia,” according to the report.
U.S. wheat production is lowered for the next year, 2012/13 down 11 million bushels. Global wheat supplies, production and consumption are all lowered for wheat in 2012/13. In the United States, ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 41 million bushels lower.
“The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $5.60 to $6.80 per bushel,” according to the report. “This remains well below the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.”
In the livestock and poultry sector, WASDE reports that “the forecast for total meat production in 2012 is raised from last month as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets lower beef production.”
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