USDA predicts record corn, soybean crops, cuts world wheat crop

By Agri-Pulse Staff

© Copyright Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.

Washington, Aug. 12 – U.S. farmers are on pace to produce the largest corn and soybean crops in history, according to the Crop Production report released today by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Corn production is forecast at 13.4 billion bushels and soybean production at 3.43 billion bushels, both up 2 percent from the previous records set in 2009. Based on conditions as of August 1, corn yields are expected to average a record-high 165 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last year’s previous record. Soybean yields are expected to equal last year’s record of 44 bushels per acre.

All wheat production, at 2.26 billion bushels, is up 2 percent from the July forecast and up 2 percent from 2009. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 46.9 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month and 2.5 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record, 2.0 bushels above 2008.

Cotton production is expected to jump 52 percent from last year, to 18.5 million 480-pound bales. Average yield is forecast at 837 pounds per harvested acre, up 60 pounds from last year.

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The August Crop Production report contains USDA’s first survey-based estimates of yield and production for corn, soybeans and other spring-planted row crops. Between July 25 and August 6, NASS surveyed approximately 27,000 producers and also took objective field measurements in the major crop-producing states. Crop Production is published monthly and is available online at www.nass.usda.gov

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released today showing higher production and exports compared with last month, with a resulting lower ending stocks number.

To listen to Stewart Doan’s overview on the crop production and WASDE report, click on the following link: USDA cut to world wheat crop overshadows first survey-based U.S. corn & soy forecasts, www.agri-pulse.com/uploaded/USDARpt081210.mp3

Highlights from USDA’s August 2010 WASDE report, according to Allendale, a commodity research and brokerage firm based in McHenry, IL.

Corn

  • A record yield (165) will push production to record levels.

  • Demand is also at record levels. Corn exports were increased 100 million bushels due to Russia and Ukraine grain production losses.

  • US ending stocks will be the tightest in four years.

Soybeans

  • Record yields (44.03) will push production to record levels.

  • New crop ending stocks will be over twice as large as 2009/10.

Wheat

  • World wheat production is lowered by a large 15 million tonnes. (Russia -8, Ukraine -3, Kazakhstan -2.5)

  • World wheat exports are lowered by 6.61 million tonnes from the July estimate (242 million bushels)

  • Even with those reductions world wheat ending stocks, at 175 million tonnes, are still above the ten year average of 161.

  • US wheat exports were increased by 200 million bushels from the last year, but US stocks are still at burdensome levels, Allendale notes.

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