Commodity prices decline in this month's WASDE

By Agri-Pulse staff

© Copyright Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.

WASHINGTON, Dec. 9- The season-average farm prices for corn, wheat and soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil are reduced in this month's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE ) report released by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS). Ending stocks for corn and wheat and soybeans rose, with rising global production increasing competition for each commodity.  Summarized information on prices, production and exports from the report is below: 

Corn: The 2011/12 season-average farm price for corn is projected 30 cents lower to $5.90 to $6.90 per bushel. U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected slightly higher with a small decrease in domestic corn use and a small increase in oats imports. Projected corn ending stocks rise 5 million bushels to 848 million.

Global corn production for 2011/12 is projected at a new record high of 867.5 million tons, despite a 3.5-million-ton decline year-to-year in the United States. Foreign corn production is expected to be up 43.4 million tons from 2010/11. China 2011/12 production is raised 7.3 million tons this month based on the recently released estimate from the National Bureau of Statistics.

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Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced prospects for exports this month. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels with reductions projected for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White wheat.

Ending stocks for 2011/12, at 878 million bushels, are projected to be up 16 million from last year, but down 98 million from the recent high in 2009/10. The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered slightly to $7.05 to $7.55 per bushel compared with $7.05 to $7.75 last month.

“Larger supplies in several major exporting countries and relatively strong domestic prices, supported by the tight domestic corn supply and use situation, are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. wheat in world trade,” according to the report. 

Larger world supplies of wheat and competitive prices relative to corn boost prospects for 2011/12 world wheat trade. Global imports are raised 1.4 million tons with increases for several Asian countries where wheat feeding is expected to be higher including South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. At the projected 208.5 million tons, global wheat stocks would be the largest in 12 years.

Rice: No changes are made to the U.S. 2011/12 all rice and rice-by-type supply and use projections. The 2011/12 long-grain, season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month.

World 2011/12 rice supply and use projections are lowered from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at a record 460.8 million tons, but down slightly due primarily to lower forecasts for Brazil and China. 

Oilseed: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed.

Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion reflecting the slow pace of shipments and outstanding sales through November, and strong export competition from South America.

Projected soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1.625 billion due to reduced domestic soybean meal consumption and a higher meal extraction rate.

Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 230 million bushels, up 35 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are all projected lower this month. The U.S. season average soybean price range for 2011/12 is projected at $10.70 to $12.70 per bushel, down 90 cents. The soybean meal price is projected at $280 to $310 per short ton, down 30 dollars. The soybean oil price range is projected at 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.6 million tons, up 2.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases projected for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and peanuts.

Cotton: The 2011/12 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include lower production, domestic mill use, and ending stocks compared with last month.

Production is reduced 473,000 bales due to decreases in all regions except the far West. Domestic mill use is reduced 200,000 bales based on lower-than-expected use in recent months.

The export estimate remains at 11.3 million bales. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.5 million bales, or 23.5 percent of total use. The forecast marketing year average price received by producers of 85-95 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range.

“Lower consumption is boosting forecast 2011/12 world ending stocks by 2.7 million bales this month,” according to the report. “World consumption is reduced sharply, reflecting continued weak mill demand owing to an uncertain world economic outlook and a loss of fiber share to polyester.”

Livestock, Dairy, Poultry: The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month, with lower forecast broiler production and a higher pork production forecast.

USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 23. For 2011, beef and broiler production forecasts are lowered, but the pork production forecast is raised.

Egg production is forecast higher in the last quarter of 2011 and for 2012. Cattle prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2011 and through 2012 as demand strength is expected to carry into 2012 in the face of tight cattle supplies. Hog prices are unchanged for 2012.

Milk production forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are raised slightly, reflecting higher growth in milk per cow and slightly more cows in 2011. The all milk price forecast is forecast at $20.05 to $20.15 per cwt for 2011, and $18.10 to $18.90 per cwt for 2012.


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