Weather woes reduce corn, wheat acreage
By Agri-Pulse staff
© Copyright Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.
WASHINGTON, June 9- As anyone watching the weather this spring knows, it has been a rough and tumble year trying to get crops planted. USDA's monthly World Supply/Demand (WASDE) report released Thursday morning, reduced both wheat and corn stocks based on inclement crop weather in key areas for both crops.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are sharply lower with reduced prospects for corn acreage. Corn planted area for 2011/12 is lowered 1.5 million acres from March intentions to 90.7 million acres. Planting delays through early June in the eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains are expected to reduce planted area, more than offsetting likely gains in the western Corn Belt and central Plains where planting was ahead of normal by mid-May. Harvested area is lowered 1.9 million acres, to 83.2 million with the additional 400,000-acre reduction reflecting early information about May flooding in the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and June flooding along the Missouri River valley. Production is projected at 13.2 billion bushels, down 305 million from last month, but still a record, and up 753 million from 2010/11.
OILSEEDS: This month's U.S. oilseed supply and use projections for 2011/12 include higher beginning and ending stocks and reduced exports. Although adverse weather has slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production estimates are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export projection for 2010/11. Soybean exports for 2010/11 are reduced 10 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels reflecting the export pace to date for the marketing year and reduced global import demand, led mainly by lower projected imports for China.
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered this month as reduced carryin more than offsets an increase in expected production. Beginning stocks are lowered 30 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel reduction in imports and a 20-million-bushel increase in exports for 2010/11, both based on the pace of shipments to date. All wheat production for 2011/12 is forecast at 2,058 million bushels, 15 million higher than last month. The winter wheat production forecast is raised 26 million bushels with higher forecast yields for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and Soft White Winter wheat. Partly offsetting is a projected 11-million-bushel reduction for durum and other spring wheat production as seedings are projected 290,000 acres lower. Flooding and persistent wet soils have delayed planting in North Dakota and Montana well beyond the normal planting window.
RICE: U.S. 2011/12 rice total supply and use are both lowered from last month and result in an overall decrease in ending stocks. U.S. 2011/12 rice production is projected at 199.5 million cwt, down 11.5 million (-5.5%) from last month due entirely to a decrease in planted area. This is the smallest crop since 2007/08. Long-grain production is lowered 10.5 million cwt to 134.0 million, while combined medium-and short-grain production is lowered 1.0 million to 65.5 million. All rice planted area is lowered 168,000 acres (-5.6%) to 2.85 million due to the impact of Mississippi River Delta flooding in the mid-South with long-grain rice in Arkansas and Missouri accounting for most of the decline.
COTTON: This month's 2011/12 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include offsetting revisions which leave ending stocks unchanged from last month. Beginning stocks are raised 500,000 bales, reflecting lower estimated exports for 2010/11. Production is reduced 1.0 million bales to 17.0 million, due mainly to expected higher abandonment resulting from the increased severity of the drought in the Southwest. With lower available U.S. supplies and marginally lower world imports, exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 13.0 million. The stocks-to-use ratio of 15 percent is above 2010/11, but remains the second lowest since 1995/96. The projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers is unchanged from last month at 95 to 115 cents per pound.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2011 total meat production is raised from last month reflecting higher beef production. Large cattle placements and larger cow slaughter, due in part to drought in the Southern Plains, is reflected in an increase in the beef production forecast. However, forecasts for pork and poultry are reduced from last month as higher forecast grain prices are expected to trim hog weight gains and put additional pressure on broiler producers.
For the full report: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
For reaction to the report by Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and a grain market analyst, click on http://www.agri-pulse.com/Audio-Friday.asp
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