WASDE: Corn production lower from last year due to summer heat, soybean and cotton up slightly

By Agri-Pulse staff

© Copyright Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.

WASHINGTON, Sept. 12-U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/2012 are projected lower this month with reduced corn production as summer heat and dryness continue to be reflected in survey-based yield forecasts. 


USDA NASS released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for September today, which indicated corn production reduced from August expectations and soybean production up slightly from last month's expectations, but down seven percent from 2010. Also, cotton production is reported as up fractionally from August, but down nine percent from last year.  Wheat production is also down from last year, and world wheat exports are 75 million bushels lower from last year, with larger exports for Canada and the EU. 
Corn: Corn production for 2011/2012 is forecast at 417 million bushels lower with epected yields down from last month across much of the Corn Belt. The season-average farm price is projected 30 cents per bushel higher to a record $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel.


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The national average corn yield is forecast at 148.1 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from August and 16.6 bushels below last year. This year's yield would be the lowest since 2005/2006, but still the third highest production ever with the second highest planted area since 1944.


Soybean: Soybean production at 3.09 billion bushels is up one percent from August's forecast, but down seven percent from last year.  The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2011/2012 is projected at $12.65 to $14.65 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range with support from higher corn prices. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $390 per short ton, up $5.00 and soybean oil prices are projected at 55.5 to 59 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents.


Cotton: U.S. cotton production is down nine percent from last year, but up fractionally from August projections. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected to range from 85 to 105 cents per pound, unchanged from last month. Cotton yield is expected at 807 pounds per acre, down five pounds from 2010. Exports are reduced 300,000 bales to 12 million, due mainly to lower US supplies and lower imports by China.

Wheat: The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.35 to $8.35 per bushel, up from last month's range of $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel supported by higher corn prices. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/2012 are raised 90 million bushels this month with higher expected imports and lower expected food use and exports. Exports for 2011/2012 are projected 75 million bushels lower with larger supplies and exports expected for Canada and the EU-27. 

Other crop summaries are as follows:
Rice: U.S. rice production is up 2.8 million cwt from last month due to increased yield. The 2011/2012 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt from last month. The average U.S. rice yield is estimated at a record 7,273 pounds per acre, up 159 pounds from last month. All rice beginning stocks for 2011/2012 are lowered 2.7 million cwt from last month to 48.4 million. The import projection is up one million to 19 million and 2011/2012 exports are lowered four million cwt from last month. The decrease in export projection is due to tighter supplies but also to an expected increase in competition from South American exporters in Western Hemisphere long-grain markets.

Oilseed: U.S. oilseed production is up 0.7 million from last month. The 2011/2012 expectations are reduced food use of soybean oil reflecting increased use of canola and palm oil, increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use for 2010/2011.

Sugar: U.S. sugar supply for 2011/2012 is reduces 215,000 short tons from last month at raw value because of lower beginning stocks and production. Beet sugar production is lowered 175,000 tons and sugar use is unchanged. 

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy: The 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised reflecting higher beef production, but lower pork productions. For 2012, beef production forecasts are raised but pork and poultry production forecasts are lowered from last month. Pork forecasts are reduced as tight feed supplies dampen hog weights. Poultry production forecasts are reduced as relatively high feed costs limit the sector's expansion and the egg production forecast is lowered due to lower hatching egg production. 

Milk production forecasts for 2012 are lowered as higher forecast feed prices reduce the rate of growth in milk per cow, but are raised for 2011 due to a higher than expected expansion in dairy herds. Cheese prices for 2011 are forecast lower, with butter prices unchanged. The Class III price is lowered, but the Class IV price forecast is unchanged from last month.  


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