WASDE report: U.S. weather woes reduce global grain supplies

By Agri-Pulse staff

© Copyright Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.

WASHINGTON, Aug. 11 - With lower than expected feed grain production, USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reflect smaller feed and residual use.

U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower this month with sharp drops in forecast corn and sorghum production. Corn production for 2011/12 is forecast 556 million bushels lower with a reduction in harvested area and lower expected yields.

Total projected corn use for 2011/12 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011 and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011/12 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding expected to increase.

Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.4 percent, compared with last month's projection of 6.4 percent. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on each end of the


Other significant 2011/12 feed grain changes include a sharp reduction in the forecast sorghum yield and production with prolonged drought and excessive heat in the central and southern Plains. Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels lower. Domestic use is also projected lower with a 10-million bushel reduction in food, seed, and industrial use and a 25-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual use.

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Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower with a 3.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks more than offset by a 14.0-million-ton reduction in output. The decline in global production is driven by reduced corn and sorghum production in the United States with foreign corn, barley, and oats production all expected higher. Corn production is raised for Brazil, Ukraine, and EU-27, but lowered for Egypt.

Global coarse grain exports for 2011/12 are lowered slightly as reduced U.S. corn and sorghum exports are mostly offset by higher expected foreign corn and barley shipments. Corn exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for Argentina, and 0.5 million tons for Canada making up more than half of the reduction in U.S. exports.

Barley exports are increased 0.7 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for EU-27, and 0.4 million tons for Argentina with the bulk of those increases to Saudi Arabia. Global coarse grain consumption is projected down 8.4 million tons with most of this resulting from lower world corn feed and residual use. More than half of the reduction is from lower corn and sorghum feed and residual use in the United States. Corn feeding in lowered for EU-27, Canada, and South Korea as rising supplies of competitively priced feed quality wheat displace corn usage. World corn ending stocks are projected down 1.1 million tons with increases for Brazil and EU-27 mostly offsetting the U.S. reduction.


U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.7 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month. Soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed production are all projected lower. Soybean supplies for 2011/12 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks.Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower harvested area and yields.

Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota. The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bushels per acre is 2.0 bushels below last month's trend yield projection and 2.1 bushels below last year's yield. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush. Soybean exports are reduced 95 million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South America this fall. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use.

U.S. changes for 2010/11 include reduced soybean crush and exports and increased ending stocks. Crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.645 billion reflecting reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 30 million from last month. Soybean and product prices for 2011/12 are all higher this month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.50 to $14.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54.5 to 58.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.


U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring wheat. Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels with a reduced outlook for exports more than offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use. Exports are projected down 50 million bushels with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised.

Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged.The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from last month's range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn.

Small changes are made to 2009/10 and 2010/11 supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census. These revisions result in adjustments to feed and residual use in both years. Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 11.4 million tons higher with higher beginning stocks and a sharp increase in production. World wheat production for 2011/12 is raised 9.7 million tons with increases in FSU-12, India, China, and EU-27 more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina. Russia production for 2011/12 is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest reports for winter wheat and continued favorable weather in most of the country's spring wheat areas. Ukraine production is increased 3.0 million tons on higher-than-expected yields; however, heavy rains during harvest have reduced this year's crop quality. Kazakhstan production is increased 1.0 million tons on abundant spring and early summer rainfall. India wheat production is up 1.9 million tons based on the latest official government estimates. China production is raised 1.5 million tons based on the latest official government indications.

Production is increased 1.4 million tons for EU-27 with increases for France, Romania, and Bulgaria. Harvest results from France indicate yields were hurt less by prolonged spring dryness than early reports had suggested. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton reduction in expected production for Argentina as the latest planting progress reports suggest less acreage increase this year.

The 2011/12 outlook for world wheat trade and consumption this month is shaped by growing supplies of wheat, especially in FSU-12 and EU-27, and tighter supplies of corn in the United States. Imports are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for South Korea, Algeria, Indonesia, Syria, and Kenya. World wheat feeding is increased 4.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in EU-27, China, Canada, South Korea, and the United States. Exports are raised 4.0 million tons for Russia and 1.5 million tons for Ukraine, more than offsetting reductions of 1.5 million tons for Argentina, 1.4 million tons for the United States, and 1.0 million tons for Canada. World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 6.7 million tons higher at 188.9 million tons. Stocks are expected to decline slightly from 2010/11 with higher usage,

but remain 62.9 million tons above their recent low in 2007/08.


The U.S. 2011/12 cotton supply and demand estimates include higher production, exports,

and ending stocks compared with last month. USDA's first survey-based crop estimates show harvested acres of 9.7 million, indicating that 30 percent of planted area has been abandoned due to severe drought. Production is estimated at 16.6 million bales, an increase of 550,000 bales from last month and 9 percent below 2010/11. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month at 3.8 million bales, but exports are raised to 12.3 million due to the larger supply. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.3 million bales, 16 percent above the beginning level, but still a relatively tight 20 percent of total use. The forecast marketing year average price received by producers of $.85-$1.05 is lowered 5 cents on both ends of the range, reflecting the recent drop in market prices.

Lower estimates of world consumption for both 2010/11 and 2011/12 are boosting this month's 2011/12 cotton world stocks forecast by about 1.7 million bales, despite lower production. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are raised about 600,000 bales, due primarily to sluggish end-of-season consumption for 2010/11. World production for 2011/12 is reduced 450,000 bales, as lower production for Brazil, Uzbekistan, Burkina Faso, and Benin is partially offset by higher production for the United States and Mali. A reduction of 1.6 million bales in projected 2011/12 world consumption mirrors the adjustments made for the preceding season and lowers the world consumption growth rate to about 1 percent reflecting continued weakness in fiber demand and increased substitution of polyester for cotton. World trade also is projected lower. World ending stocks are forecast at 52.7 million bales or 46 percent of world consumption, above the last two seasons but below the historical average.

For the full WASDE report: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf


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