USDA estimates project higher exports

By Sarah Gonzalez

© Copyright Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.

WASHINGTON, Feb. 9- Corn exports will be 50 million bushels higher this year, according to the USDA supply and demand estimates report this morning.  Soybean exports, although lower than last year, are expected to climb in the second half of the year. 

World wheat production is increased three million metric tons, with increased competition from Russia and the Ukraine, according to the report. 

The following is information from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on corn, soybean, rice, cotton, meat, poultry, wheat and sugar. 

Corn: U.S. corn exports are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced supplies in Argentina and recent increases in both sales and shipments. Corn ending stocks are projected 45 million bushels lower at 801 million. The projected range for the season-average farm corn price is narrowed 10 cents on both ends of the range to $5.80 to $6.60 per bushel.

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Soybean: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2011/12 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 275 million bushels. Although soybean export commitments through January trail last year's pace by more than 226 million bushels, lower soybean crop forecasts and reduced export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay are expected to be offset by additional U.S. sales and exports during the second half of the marketing year.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011/12 is narrowed to $11.10 to $12.30

per bushel compared with $10.95 to $12.45 last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at

50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, and soybean meal prices are projected at $290 to $320 per short ton, both unchanged from last month.

Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this month. Exports are raised 25 million bushels supported by the stronger-than-expected pace of sales and shipments, particularly for competitively priced feed-quality wheat. Projected exports of Soft

Red Winter and White wheat are each raised 15 million bushels on strong demand from Mexico and South Korea. Exports are also projected higher for Hard Red Winter wheat, up 5 million bushels, based on sales and shipments to date. Projected Hard Red Spring wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels as strong domestic premiums for spring wheat continue to limit demand.

Ending stocks for all wheat are projected 25 million bushels lower at 845 million. Based on prices reported to date and the lower expected carryout, the 2011/12 projected season-average farm price is raised 20 cents on the bottom end of the range to $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel.

Rice: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2011/12 rice supply and use balance sheet. On the use side, the export forecast is lowered 1 million cwt from a month ago to 89 million-all in long-grain. The rough rice export projection is lowered 1 million cwt to 32 million, while forecast combined milled- and brown-rice exports are unchanged at 57 million.

The reduction in the export projection is due primarily to the slower-than-expected pace of sales and shipments to date to mostly to Central America because of increased competition, mainly from Brazil, and greater domestic s The projected U.S. average milling yield for 2011/12 is reduced to 70.00 percent, down 0.75 percentage points from last month, but still above 68.86 percent for 2010/11. The change is based on data supplied by the Rice Millers' Association of the USA Rice Federation for August through December and on expectations for the remainder of the marketing year supplies in some countries.

Sugar: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is increased 86,000 tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher production more than offsetting lower imports.

Meat and Poultry: The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as reduced broiler meat production is expected to more than offset higher forecast beef, pork, and turkey production.

Beef production is raised from last month. Despite expected tight fed cattle supplies, cow slaughter is expected to remain relatively strong during the first quarter and carcass weights are forecast higher. Pork production is raised as first quarter slaughter and first-half carcass weights are expected to be higher than forecast last month.

Egg production is lowered slightly for 2012. Estimates of 2011 meat and egg production are adjusted to reflect December data.

Cattle prices for 2012 are raised from last month, reflecting tight supplies of fed cattle. The hog price forecast is unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are raised, reflecting lower production, and turkey prices are raised on current price strength. The egg price range is narrowed.

Cotton: The export estimate for cotton is unchanged.

The 2011/12 U.S. cotton estimates reflect marginally lower domestic mill use compared with last month. With no change in the production estimate, the total cotton supply is unchanged. With no change in the production estimate, the total cotton supply is unchanged. Domestic mill use is lowered 100,000 bales, reflecting lower than anticipated activity in recent months. Ending stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 3.8 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26 percent. The forecast range for the average price received by producers of 87 to 93 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end.


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