Soybeans climbed the most in nearly a year Monday amid concern about extreme weather and hopes of fresh Chinese purchases of U.S. crops.
Speculation that Chinese importers are buying five cargoes of soybeans helped lift futures nearly 4%, said Austin Schroeder, president and owner of Schroeder Commodity Marketing. Further, Chinese media is reporting that the U.S. and China are continuing work on a mutual Board of Trade, said StoneX Group Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman. That's spurring “hope and optimism” for increased purchases.
Corn jumped 3.7% and wheat 2.4% after “overcoming a challenging, abnormally hot and wet June growing season,” said Virginia McGathey, president of McGathey Commodities.
Heatwaves in the central and eastern U.S., are stoking weather worries as European forecast models call for a hot and dry August in the Midwest. Suderman, however, points out that at least one American forecaster is “debunking” that outlook.
Mixed weather outcomes were on display last week in Iowa. Some parts of the state saw more than double the rain normally expected this time of year, Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said in a statement on Monday.
“There have been widespread reports of flooded fields and basements, swollen streams and rivers, and impacts to roads and other infrastructure.” Naig said. “At the same time, other areas of the state, including drought-affected portions of northwest and north-central Iowa, received much-needed rainfall. Looking ahead, the forecast calls for additional chances of thunderstorms across much of the state through midweek, with warmer and drier conditions expected through mid-July.”
USTR kicks off week of tariff hearings
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is holding a series of multiday hearings to determine the future of proposed Section 301 tariffs this week. USTR will hear testimony July 7- 9 on Section 301 tariffs on 60 nations for importing goods produced with forced labor.
The ad valorem tariffs on those nations range from 10% to 12.5%, according to the Federal Register. USTR launched the investigation into the 60 nations on March 12, less than a month after the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's sweeping global tariffs.
USTR exempted certain agricultural goods from the tariffs, including bovine products, seasonal tomatoes, coffee, coconuts and certain nuts, among others.
Several agricultural groups will appear before the panel, including the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, Organic Trade Association, American Seed Trade Association, US Wine Trade Alliance, American Coalition for Fair Trade in Seafood, American Cotton Producers and North American Olive Oil Association, among others.
Separately, USTR is holding a two-day hearing that concludes today on a proposal to impose a 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian imports, with an exemption for beef products.
RFA makes case for US retaliatory tariff on Brazilian ethanol
At that hearing, the Renewable Fuels Association voiced strong support for the Trump administration’s push to slap a 25% reciprocal levy on most imports from Brazil, including ethanol.
The proposed tariff is “reasonably” close in value to the 18% duty that’s been in place in Brazil for several years, Edward Hubbard, RFA’s general counsel and VP of government affairs, said Monday in testimony before the USTR.
Brazil’s “punitive” trade barriers starting in 2017 soured what had been an “open and efficient two-way trading relationship in ethanol,” which had led to a sharp rise in biofuel trade between the U.S. and Brazil, he said. But the South American nation’s subsequent pro-tariff regime was a clear effort to disadvantage U.S. ethanol, according to Hubbard.
U.S. ethanol shipments to Brazil accounted for just 1.3% of total U.S. exports of the biofuel in 2024, and 1.8% last year, after making up about a third of all exports as recently as 2018, according to RFA.
Hubbard also noted that RenovaBio, Brazil’s policy meant to lower the carbon intensity of transportation fuel, is expected to generate 5 billion gallons of biofuel demand in Brazil through 2030. Yet after five years, “not a single U.S. ethanol plant has received a full certification from the Brazilian government to generate credits” under the program, he said.
USDA seeks feedback on how to improve the Food for Peace program
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is asking the public to weigh in on Food for Peace, the program that helps people in food-insecure areas worldwide while supporting U.S. farmers.
The request reflects a focus on putting U.S. farmers first by improving the program, USDA said on Monday.
The Trump administration froze spending on foreign assistance in January while dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development, which housed Food for Peace. The program was eventually moved to the Agriculture Department, though Congress still must act to make the transfer permanent.
USDA is asking for feedback on nonemergency programming, including:
“Designing and implementing the program in a way that increases food security, builds resilience, and reduces and ultimately eliminates the need for [U.S. government] humanitarian food assistance.”
“Identifying current commodity supply constraints, product opportunities, and logistics needs.”
“Improving nutritional formulations using high-quality American agricultural products.”
The USDA is asking for responses by 5 p.m. EST on July 24.
Western dairy herds see resurgence of HPAI with new cases in Idaho, Utah
A resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza is hitting dairy herds across the West, with Idaho seeing 40 new cases over the last 30 days and Utah seeing eight, according to USDA data.
While a wave of HPAI cases spread through U.S. dairy herds in 2024, case counts had fallen substantially by mid-2025, with only 12 cases detected between June 2025 and March 2026.
However, new cases began circulating through Idaho in April, and cases also began appearing in Utah by early June. Texas also saw a case in late May.
Take note: Unlike in poultry, most dairy cattle infected with HPAI tend to recover, though the virus can reduce their milk production.
IDFA reacts to US-Uzbekistan and US-EU trade deals
Although not fully negotiated yet, the U.S.-Uzbekistan early harvest trade commitments have received plaudits from the International Dairy Foods Association.
Even though dairy products may not be included in the final deal, IDFA says in a press release that it supports USTR’s pursuit of “agreements with emerging markets that are critical to the diversification and protection of U.S. dairy supply chains.”
The association also “celebrated” the implementation of the U.S.-European Union trade agreement, effective July 1. The EU now allows for tariff-free imports up to 10,000 metric tons of U.S. cheese and 10,000 metric tons of other dairy products.
IDFA noted that the EU “also agreed to reduce tariffs on up to 50,000 mt of U.S. infant formula and related products and streamline dairy certification requirements. … U.S. exporters will be able to take advantage of these TRQs immediately, as the entirety of quota volumes is now available at the reduced tariff rate through June 30, 2027.”
Final word
"I don’t think we’re seeing it. We have had a lot of drought and dry areas in the big cattle country in the Western states, and that really is holding down expansion. I just don’t see it, in a hurry, turning very fast.” — U.S. Cattlemen’s Association President Justin Tupper on whether he’s seen any indications of cattle herd expansion.
“The shortage of cattle is being felt across the meatpacking industry by big and small processors alike, and it is costing jobs. Tyson Foods closed its plant in Lexington, Nebraska, putting hundreds of people out of work and leaving a rural area looking for answers. Offering band-aid solutions to only certain processors ignores the underlying problem of a historic livestock shortage that risks the livelihoods of thousands of workers who rely on union meatpacking jobs in their communities.” — United Food & Commercial Workers International Union President Milton Jones, responding to USDA’s plan to pay smaller beef processing companies to help the industry weather a historic cattle shortage.