Department of Agriculture officials raised soybean and corn yields, which helped push ending stocks projections higher in Tuesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Soybean yield projections rose from 50.6 bushels per acre last month to 51.5 bushels per acre in October, according to the report. Soybean ending stocks for the 2021/2022 marketing year increased 135 million to 320 million bushels in October.
The nearly one-bushel increase in soybean yield expectations was one of the main reasons for the increase in U.S. soybean supply, said University of Missouri agricultural economist Ben Brown.
“An 81-(million) bushel increase in beginning stocks again (is) due to lower use last marketing year, and then 74-million bushels of additional production helped create that 135-(million) bushel increase,” Brown told Agri-Pulse.
Officials adjusted corn yields slightly higher to 176.5 bushels per acre, up from 176.3 bushels per acre last month. Brown said traders were expecting corn yields to decrease because of dry pockets in high corn production states.
“Yields in the drought-stricken regions or poor producing regions are coming in better than expected whereas yields in the central or eastern Corn Belt ... are coming a little below expectations,” Brown noted.
According to the latest USDA Crop Production report, states such as Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska saw yield increases over the last month. Some areas in those states have been dry.
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Corn ending stocks for the 2021/2022 marketing year are estimated at 1.5 billion bushels in the October report, up from the 1.4-billion-bushel projection last month. The average farm price remained the same at $5.45 per bushel. The soybean average farm price dropped from $12.90 to $12.35 per bushel in October.
Brown noted wheat ending stocks are continuing to improve after high U.S. and global supplies over the last few years, which has made it challenging for wheat prices to move higher.
Earlier this year, wheat found its way into feed bunks displacing corn, Brown said. “As a result, both here in the U.S. and globally we’ve been working those wheat stocks down,” Brown stated.
U.S. wheat ending stocks are down from last month’s projection of 615 million bushels to 580 million bushels in October. The average farm price has increased from $6.60 per bushel in September to $6.70 per bushel in October.
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