USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered its forecast for U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 2024 Thursday to $169.5 billion. That’s down $2.5 billion from USDA’s previous August forecast and $9.2 billion lower than exports in FY 2023.
The forecast also bumped up expectations for imports, increasing the negative trade balance to $30.5 billion, nearly double the $16.7 billion recorded in FY 2023.
USDA lowered its forecast for the value of exports primarily due to the falling value of feed, grain, beef, poultry, pork and dairy products. Furthermore, demand from China — the largest foreign market for U.S. exports — is slowing.
The new forecast for U.S. grain and feed exports is set at $37.5 billion for FY 2024, a $1.3-billion drop from the August figures due to reduced expectations for wheat and corn trade. Wheat trade accounted for $800 million worth of that decrease; corn exports were forecast $500 million lower at $12.8 billion due to “lower unit values more than offsetting slightly higher volumes,” USDA noted.
USDA expects U.S. rice exports to increase, a departure from the other categories in the analysis. The U.S. is now forecast to export $2 billion worth of rice — about 2.9 million metric tons — in FY 2024. That’s up from the $1.8 billion USDA was forecasting in FY 2024 and the $1.8 billion total for FY 2023.
“With a larger crop, U.S. rice exports are expected to rebound to markets in Mexico, Central and South America, and East Asia,” USDA noted in the report.
U.S. soybean exports will be less than expected — $500 million lower than USDA's August projections at $26 billion — but soymeal shipments are on the rise. USDA forecast meal exports up $200 million to $6.1 billion.
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Soyoil — projected $200 million higher — has become the primary crush product sought after domestically as renewable diesel production continues to rise. Meanwhile, soymeal exports are rising as prices remain advantageous and competition is low from other major producers like Argentina.
As for China, the country will continue to be the largest foreign market for U.S. ag exports, but USDA expects trade will decline in FY 2024.
“While the U.S. dollar continues to be strong against the Chinese yuan, a slowing Chinese economy and ongoing discussions about trade flows suggest that imports from East Asia — and especially China — are expected to decline relative to FY 2023,” USDA said in the report. Meanwhile, U.S. ag exports to China “are forecast at $29.5 billion, down $500 million from the August projection. Exports to Mexico and Canada are forecast at $27.9 billion and $27.7 billion, respectively.”
The forecast $29.5 billion would be the lowest level of U.S. ag exports to China since 2020.
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