Egg prices are continuing to climb as highly pathogenic avian influenza spreads across U.S. layer flocks. Cases also are increasing on broiler chicken operations.
HPAI has been confirmed in 121 U.S. flocks in the last 30 days, affecting a total of 22.7 million birds. Seventy-nine of these are commercial flocks, while 42 are backyard flocks.
The virus, which hit California egg-laying flocks hard in December and early January, has since surfaced in commercial broiler facilities in eastern and southern states while also continuing to infect turkey flocks.
According to USDA’s recent Egg Markets overview, prices for large white shell eggs increased 15 cents to $6.70 per dozen last week. Prices vary regionally. In the Midwest, the wholesale price of large white shell eggs delivered to warehouses was $7.03 per dozen last week, while in California the benchmark for large shell eggs was $8.97 per dozen, according to the report.
The average price of a dozen grade A large eggs rose to $4.14 in December, a 50-cent increase from November, according to the latest Consumer Price Index.
Egg prices also vary store to store as some retailers continue to sell them at a lower price, said University of California-Davis economist Daniel Sumner. Some stores may choose to sell at around $5 while others may choose to raise prices — although many may be wary of doing so to avoid accusations of price gouging.
“You end up having quantity shortages as opposed to just high prices,” Sumner told Agri-Pulse.
Some 18.8 commercial egg-laying hens have been infected by the virus since the beginning of January, according to an Agri-Pulse analysis of USDA reports. Cases have been confirmed in California, Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, Washington and North Carolina.
Last Tuesday the virus was found on an Indiana farm belonging to the nation’s second largest egg producer, Rose Acre Farms. CEO Tony Wesner, in a letter published in the Seymour Tribune Saturday, expressed disappointment that a vaccine is not available, due in part to trade barriers.
"This is a very complicated issue, and it would take pages to cover all the complexities, but the bottom line is that people are hungry and billions of dollars are being spent on battling influenza in a defensive and not an offensive manner,” Wesner wrote. “If we continue to keep fighting the same way we have been, we will continue to get the same results.”
Dan SumnerCalifornia, which saw a surge of cases in December, had already seen its layer hen population fall from 20 million chickens in 2008 to 11.1 million in 2023. Sumner expects the downward trend to continue as growers hit by HPAI choose not to restock.
“I think farms here are, in a sense, not replacing, and maybe they never will replace the hens,” Sumner said. "But we’ve gradually had fewer and fewer hens as the years have gone down by over the last 10 years or 15 years. This may be another ratchet downward in that."
Broiler operations in January also saw an uptick in cases, with 85 commercial flocks infected, an increase of 15 from December. A total of 23.31 million birds were infected in January when looking at both commercial and backyard flocks, a 5.6-million-bird increase from December.
Since the beginning of January, HPAI has infected 2.1 million commercial broiler chickens. One outbreak in Accomack, Virginia, hit 441,000 birds, while another in Caroline, Maryland, affected 228,300.
Cases have also popped up in broiler flocks in other parts of Maryland, Delaware, Georgia, Arkansas and Missouri.
Chicken prices are less likely to be impacted by HPAI than those for eggs, though drastic and large outbreaks could have an impact, said Dennis Brothers, a professor of agricultural economics and rural sociology at Auburn University. Broilers can be more quickly replaced than egg layers, limiting the market impact of recent outbreaks.
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Chicken prices have remained steadier than egg prices in recent years but have seen a recent upswing. The price of fresh whole chicken rose from $1.98 per pound last September to $2.08 per pound in November, before dropping to $2.06 per pound in December.
Brothers said the more worrying trend is the virus’s appearance in broiler breeders, which supply hatcheries. Since January the virus has infected 83,950 broiler breeder hens in Missouri, Arkansas and Georgia, according to USDA.
Referencing an outbreak in Missouri, Brothers said some of the birds were worth $200 each. “They’re supplying the genetics for the next two, three years at least, so that could be a big impact,” he said.
HPAI has continued to spread through dairy cattle in California, with 32 confirmed cases in the past 30 days. Four cases have also been confirmed in Nevada.
Fred GingrichFred Gingrich, executive director of the American Association of Bovine Practitioners, said the virus’s continued spread in California is “very concerning,” adding that there have been reports of abortions in heifers which could have long-term consequences for some producers.
He said milk testing launched by USDA in December will be critical for surveilling the disease. Twenty-eight states had signed on to the effort as of Jan. 16, USDA national incident coordinator Alex Turner told reporters.
Gingrich believes the milk testing strategy is working, citing higher testing rates in states where testing was previously voluntary.
“We have to get all 50 states enrolled in that program to make sure that we are identifying the herds that are affected,” Gingrich said.
While the USDA has continued communicating with state and local animal health officials, Gingrich said he is concerned by restrictions on CDC and FDA from speaking publicly or releasing research.
“It’s concerning to AABP that we really can’t speak to our federal partners,” he said of the two agencies. “We hope that’s temporary, and I anticipate it will be OK."
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