WASHINGTON, September 12, 2012- U.S. corn and soybean production estimates are slightly lowered this month due to this year’s drought conditions and Russia’s wheat reductions caused global wheat supplies to lower, according to USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
In 2012/13, global corn exports are lowered 1.8 million tons this month with the largest reduction for the United States. Reduced corn production prospects for EU-27, Serbia, and Canada add to the decline in the United States to reduce world corn output eight million tons, reported USDA.
This marketing year, 2011/12, U.S. corn exports are lowered 10 million bushels “reflecting the slowing pace of shipments during August,” the report stated. The feed and residual use for 2011/12 is also lowered 150 million bushels due to the record level of crop maturity and early harvest progress.
Overall global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons lower despite higher beginning stocks of corn in the United States and barley in Canada.
U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 are reduced 55 million bushels to 1.055 billion due to reduced supplies. Soybean production is projected at 2.634 billion bushels, down 58 million due to lower yields in the Midwest. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 1.5 billion, the lowest since 1996/97.
“The reduction reflects lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal consumption,” according to the WASDE report.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012/13 is projected unchanged at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel. USDA also reported that although soybean ending stocks are projected unchanged at 115 million bushels, they would fall to a 9-year low.
For this year, 2012/11, soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.36 billion. Soybean crush for 2011/12 is increased 15 million bushels to 1.705 billion reflecting higher-than expected crush reported for July.
Globally, all oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 453.1 million tons, down 4.2 million from last month, with projected soybean production reduced for Ukraine and Canada as well as the United States.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 3.1 million tons lower mostly due to lower expected production in Russia, the report stated. Production for Russia is reduced 4.0 million tons with lower reported area and reduced yields as harvest results confirm additional drought and heat damage to both the winter and spring wheat crops.
Last month, the report forecast U.S. wheat production higher 44 million bushels. Changes to U.S. wheat balance sheet this month include adjustments to export estimates. U.S. wheat projected exports for Hard Red Winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels with Hard Red Spring and White wheat exports raised 15 million bushels and 10 million bushels, respectively.
The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price for wheat is lowered to $7.50 to $8.70 per bushel compared with $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel last month.
For the entire report, go here.
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