USDA is projecting that net farm income will increase sharply this year, largely due to an infusion of $31 billion in disaster aid and market relief assistance provided by Congress in December.
Net farm income, which is a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $180.1 billion for 2025, an increase of 26.4% from 2024, when adjusted for inflation, and 44.8% above the 20-year average for farm earnings, according to USDA's Economic Research Service.
Net cash farm income, which is a measure of farm cash flow, is estimated to increase by 18.8%, or $30.6 billion, to $193.7 billion in 2025. That would be 30.9% above the 20-year average for net cash farm income.
Net cash farm income is based on cash receipts from farming, plus government payments and other farm-related income, minus cash expenses. Net farm income also factors in depreciation and changes in inventory values.
Direct government payments to producers are forecast to increase 355%, or $33.1 billion, to $42.4 billion in 2025, largely because of the assistance provided by Congress.
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The overall increases in income mask a projected slump in revenue from row crops.
Crop cash receipts are estimated to fall 2.3% to $239.6 billion, driven by a $5.8 billion reduction in revenue from corn and soybeans, not adjusted for inflation.
But revenue from livestock, poultry and their products are forecast to increase by 1.4%, or $3.8 billion, not adjusted for inflation. Revenue from milk is estimated to increase 2.7%, but revenue from cattle and calves is estimated to fall 0.2%. Cash receipts from hogs and broilers are projected to be higher.
Average net cash farm income for farms that are classified by USDA as “farm businesses” is expected to increase 11.4% in 2025 to $128,900. Farms are considered farm businesses if they have at least $350,000 in gross cash farm income.
"When grouped by commodity specialization, farm businesses specializing in animal/animal products are forecast to see higher average net cash farm income in 2025 while the outlook for those specializing in crops is mixed," ERS says in its forecast.
