Egg prices eased significantly as the avian flu outbreak died down in recent weeks, but experts warn price volatility could return as the weather warms and more flocks are infected.
USDA reported just one farm of more than 1 million birds infected in March after reporting four in February with 1.2 million to 3.1 million birds each. A fifth infected layer flock had 912,000 birds.
USDA’s March 28 weekly egg report showed wholesale prices for white, large shell eggs had declined 26 cents to $3 per dozen after spiking at more than $8 in February. Egg prices in California, which has more restrictive requirements for housing, remain well above the U.S. average. The California benchmark price for large shell eggs declined $1.13 to $6.06 a dozen.
“In the last two weeks or so, prices have really moderated considerably. So, it's a very volatile market,” North Carolina State University economist Barry Goodwin said at a forum organized by the American Enterprise Institute.
But the risk of new outbreaks will rise “as the weather warms and migratory birds” spread the virus, he said.
Goodwin said he sees no evidence that producers have manipulated egg prices to keep them up.
"There's good economic explanations for what we we've seen in the market without having to go to some conspiracy to inflate prices," he said.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, who has been touting the decline in egg prices as evidence that the administration’s plan for combatting avian flu is working, nevertheless acknowledged during a trip to Iowa on Monday that the outbreaks can expand again.
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, with Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa (Agri-Pulse photo)“I wish I could tell you we have a silver bullet. ... Certainly, the price of eggs has come down. Certainly, the avian flu has sort of decreased. But as we move into the migration season, we may see it come back up, but we are working day and night,” Rollins said.
The egg industry has called for vaccinating birds to protect against future outbreaks and price spikes, but the idea has run into opposition from the broiler industry, which fears a loss of export markets, and from the Trump administration.
USDA began de-emphasizing vaccines as a tool to control bird flu in poultry shortly after Rollins unveiled the five-part, $1 billion bird flu strategy that includes biosecurity and deregulation.
It also contains $100 million for vaccines, therapeutics and culling methods for what Rollins described March 31 in Iowa as an "an all-of-research approach with our friends in the private sector to figure out how this bird flu had gotten so out of control, why it's jumping to our dairy cattle and how we need to basically roll it back."
The day after unveiling the plan, the department touted support for the plan from farm groups, many of which specifically mentioned the importance of moving ahead on vaccines.
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“When I speak to producers in the egg industry and folks that are on the ground, what I hear overwhelmingly is that we're not currently on track to ensure that this is not going to happen again,” Robert Yaman of Innovate Animal Ag, an industry think tank, said at the AEI forum.
He went on, “The only solution that we have right now to be proactive and protect against future price hikes due to supply shocks is vaccination, because that will be proactive protection of our flocks from being negatively affected by the disease.”
The vaccine strategy faces opposition from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who told Fox News that vaccinating birds could result in virus mutations that make the flu more dangerous to humans. He instead suggested letting the virus run through flocks to identify resistant birds.
That’s a bad idea, according to Kay Russo, a veterinary scientist with RSM Consulting.
“While I appreciate the administration's interest in looking outside the box strategically, this will not work here. It's not a viable strategy, and that's because the mortality rate of this virus in commercial birds ranges anywhere between 75 to 100%," she said at the AEI event.
“And so, if you think egg prices were expensive before letting this virus move through those flocks and kill all of the birds, your eggs are going to be very expensive.”
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