A panel of top executives from California’s major agricultural associations painted a dire picture of the state’s farming future during the Agri-Pulse 2025 Food & Ag Issues Summit West last week in Sacramento. They pointed to mounting regulatory costs, labor crackdowns and declining global competitiveness as existential threats to agricultural operations.
“I think we’re there,” said Shannon Douglass, president of the California Farm Bureau, referring to industry concerns of hitting a tipping point. “The evidence of that is the loss of farms.”
She pointed out that over the last 10 years, California has lost 20% of its farms — disproportionately hurting small and medium-sized operations. Douglass and other panelists pointed to an earlier discussion at the summit with Lynn Hamilton, agribusiness professors at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. Hamilton presented her study outlining a nearly 1,400% increase in regulatory costs over the last 17 years.
“That's a real problem here in California,” said Douglass. “When it comes to keeping me up at night, that's pretty heavy on the heart.”
Export markets falter amid port inefficiencies and trade tensions
For export-heavy commodities like tree nuts, barriers to global trade and poor port infrastructure have proven especially painful. Alexi Rodriguez, CEO of the Almond Alliance, warned that California is losing its competitive edge.
“We export about 70% of the product we grow,” she said, noting that the top market, China, collapsed in the wake of 2018 tariffs and is now likely to drop out of the top 10. “Without some thoughtful policy implementation to ease the burdens and improve market access, we really do run the risk of losing our family farms and investment in California agriculture.”
Rodriguez added that while the Trump administration has paused some new tariffs, growers remain deeply cautious about retaliation and long-term instability.
Alexi Rodriguez, Almond AllianceRoger Isom, president and CEO of the Western Tree Nut Association and the California Cotton Ginners and Growers Association, said inefficiencies at California ports are a persistent obstacle. He noted that California’s three commercial seaports rank in the bottom 250 of about 400 ports nationwide.
“It's lack of automation,” Isom said. “We missed a golden opportunity coming out of COVID.”
He called it a huge mistake that President Joe Biden pledged about half a billion dollars towards infrastructure and Governor Gavin Newsom set aside about a quarter of a billion dollars, but not “a single penny” went toward automation.
Rodriguez and Natalie Collins, president of the California Association of Winegrape Growers, also called for narrowly targeted tariffs. Collins noted that imports of bulk wine have undermined local growers by undercutting prices.
“Tariffs are obviously a double-edged sword for us,” she said.
Regulatory burdens drive farms out — and keep innovation out, too
Panelists uniformly pointed to California’s regulatory structure as a key reason that growers are shifting operations to other states and countries. Dave Puglia, president and CEO of the Western Growers Association, said he has watched investment flow into South Carolina, Arizona and Peru — while California’s agriculture sector contracts.
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“Economics always wins,” Puglia said, turning his attention to Sacramento policymakers. “Your standalone policy proposals are probably defensible in their own right. But the accumulation of them over decades — layered on top of one another, without any logical connection or any tie to what the competitive environment looks like in other states and other countries — you're going to kill the industry.”
Isom recounted a recent call with a former member who had moved to Texas.
“He told me, ‘I have not seen a regulator since I’ve been here, and I have not filled out a regulatory report’,” said Isom. “That's the difference between anywhere else in the country and trying to do business in California.”
The panel also highlighted California’s reluctance to authorize driverless tractors and other autonomous agricultural equipment, despite embracing other technologies.
“You can be in San Francisco driving around and have both sides of you be a driverless car driving through a school zone and through lots of crosswalks,” said Douglass, adding that 11 other states have allowed driverless tractors.
Puglia said California’s new appointees on the Occupational Safety and Health Standards Board may soon reverse that stance, but he called the delay “embarrassing.”
Panelists expressed similar frustration over delays in permitting agricultural drone technology and AI-based automation.
While automation is often seen as a solution to rising labor costs, Douglass shared a cautionary tale: A Northern California grower who invested heavily in robotic equipment was unable to find a technician when it broke.
“It was the equivalent of a treadmill with clothes strung on it, that's not getting used but taking up this big footprint in their packing shed,” she said.
Isom described new industry-led training initiatives, such as a processing lab at California State University, Fresno for tech students and a certificate program for current workers to learn to operate next-generation equipment.
“That is the future,” he said, pointing out that the tree nut industry has eliminated 10,000 jobs in the last three years, primarily for sorters.
Natalie Collins, California Association of Winegrape GrowersPanelists also sounded the alarm over immigration raids. Puglia reported that sweeps in Ventura County had already caused farmworkers to walk off the job.
“Make sure your employees know what their rights are. Make sure they know how to access legal resources. Make sure you have your I-9 self-audit complete,” he said. “But if the feds decide to conduct a raid, they're going to conduct a raid. We can't stop that.”
He advocated for reviving the Farm Workforce Modernization Act, which passed the House twice in prior sessions.
“Had it been signed into law in 2021 … it would have saved ag employers using the H-2A program by now over $3 billion in wages,” he said.
A call for better outreach — and optimism for what’s ahead
Despite the litany of challenges, panelists struck a hopeful tone when discussing the future.
Collins highlighted her group’s upcoming rebrand and new website focused on grower resources and celebrated the association’s 50th anniversary last year.
Isom has been inspired by a growing membership and his groups have invested more time and money to ramp up an education campaign in Sacramento.
Rodriguez emphasized telling a new story for almonds: “We do so many wonderful things for the environment that we don't get credit for.” She named carbon sequestration, developing pollinator habitats an increased water efficiency.
Douglass said a promising sign came with the recent formation of a new county farm bureau in San Francisco, the first in 65 years.
“They're growing and adding members, and they have people with an interest in food,” she said. “That's been a really interesting indicator, and has led to really, really fascinating dialog from a very different space.”
Panelists agreed that educating lawmakers and the public with a unified agricultural voice is more important than ever.
“Let's go,” said Puglia. “This industry has a lot more political firepower than we've been able to muster and spend and target before.”
Douglass built on that point: “I'm really hopeful that this affordability dialog is one that unites us across ag.”
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