Early signs of American farmers balking at higher fertilizer prices emerged this week as top producers of crop nutrients reported quarterly results.
Mosaic Co., citing the potential for deferred purchases, cut its forecast for 2025 potash production volumes to 9.1-9.4 million tons, down from its prior estimate of 9.3-9.5 million tons. Further, the Tampa, Florida-based-company posted lower operating cash flow in the latest quarter in part due to a buildup in fertilizer inventories.
Nutrien, the world’s top fertilizer maker, expects potash sales volumes this fall to be “a bit flattish from last year” and phosphate "a bit down.” But the Saskatchewan-based company stressed that it’s right in the middle of what’s typically the biggest two weeks of the autumn application season. Nutrien said huge harvests mean growers will need to replenish their farmland with key nutrients.
Still, soaring production costs for farmers, especially of fertilizer, on top of recent slumps in crop prices are expected to send crop income for U.S. crop farmers down for a third straight year.
Nutrien expects potash demand to remain flat in North America in 2026 while increasing in South America. U.S. nitrogen supplies remain relatively tight, the company says.
Nutrien CFO Mark Thompson told analysts potash prices have “remained affordable on a relative and absolute basis, which supported sales volumes near record levels for the quarter.”
The company noted in its market outlook that crop prices are under pressure but said “recently reported trade agreements between the U.S. and China and proposed government payments are expected to provide support to farmers.”
Details of the trade deals and the size and timing of a farm bailout package remain uncertain as farmers wrap up harvest.
As uncertain U.S. trade and biofuel policies weigh on the farming sector, and government aid is stalled, a pullback on fertilizer could lead to lower yields and/or plantings next spring.
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“Fourth quarter will pose a real test for crop nutrients sales when U.S. farmers go to apply nutrients post harvest,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell. “We expect a pullback in phosphate volumes, dragging down potash volumes as well since the two are applied in a blend, though anhydrous demand should remain strong as nitrogen is the nutrient farmers can't skip.”
CF Industries, the world’s largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer, predicts North American demand will stay strong as the market currently favors planting nitrogen-reliant corn over soybeans next year. Longer term, the company based in Northbrook, Illinois, sees worldwide nitrogen capacity under construction not keeping pace with demand growth over the next four years of about 1.5% a year.
“Global production is expected to remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and availability of natural gas in Egypt, Trinidad, and Iran,” according to CF.
Maxwell forecasts that phosphate and potash prices will stay elevated next year, crimping demand as a supply squeeze continues.
“Major supply relief for phosphate and potash remains a year away, while a surge in global LNG and ammonia supply in 2026 should bring down nitrogen prices,” she said.
Yara International, among the biggest makers of nitrogen fertilizer, has forecast a tighter global nitrogen market in coming years amid limited new capacity in the pipeline, excluding China. By 2030, due to uncertain timing of the completion of several projects, global urea capacity is seen far below average at less than 1 million metric tons, according to the Norwegian company.
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