The Trump administration has finally released some key details about the size and timing of its $11 billion rescue package for U.S. row crop farmers. But the administration won’t disclose the payment rates until the week of Dec. 22 after getting acreage reports from producers.
“We have an economic model and formula already that we will be using to get those specific payment rates per commodities,” said Alison Slagell, senior policy adviser to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.
Slagell said those details can’t be shared publicly until USDA has received acreage data from farmers and runs “stress tests” to determine the specific payment rate for each commodity covered under the department’s Farmer Bridge Assistance Program.
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The aid plan announced on Monday by President Donald Trump includes an additional $1 billion in payments for specialty crop farmers, to be delivered at a time still to be determined. The initial $11 billion will be doled out to growers of soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and other row crops before the end of February 2026.
Big picture: USDA officials stressed that the program is intended to cover broad economic burdens, not just losses due to retaliatory tariffs. That includes higher costs of inputs like fertilizer and fuel and “market losses tied to foreign competitors who aren’t playing by the rules,” said USDA Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation Richard Fordyce.
“This program is simple, proportional and fair, with no complicated factors, no carving up producers by crop or region,” said Fordyce. “If you plant an eligible crop and you've taken a hit, you'll receive support.”
Read our coverage of the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program here:
Administration to issue new ‘bridge’ payments early next year
Lawmakers, farm groups react to Trump farm aid
Bankruptcy numbers: At the White House announcement, Trump also took a swipe at one of his favorite targets, former President Joe Biden, claiming that “in the last year, Biden [farm] bankruptcies rose by 55%.”
According to the U.S. courts, Chapter 12 filings went from 344 for fiscal 2021 (covering most of the first year of Biden’s presidency) to 182 for FY22. The next two years saw 142 and 202 Chapter 12 filings, respectively. For FY25, which ended Sept. 30, there were 293 Chapter 12 filings.
Looked at another way, there have been 256 filings in the first nine months of this calendar year. That’s 40 more than calendar year 2024, the last year of Biden’s presidency.
Nelson returns as Illinois FB president amid AFBF dispute
Illinois Farm Bureau delegates have voted in Philip Nelson as their new president, marking the fourth-generation farmer's return to a role he previously held for a decade.
Nelson, a fourth-generation farmer in northeastern Illinois, got 55.6% of the vote at the bureau's annual meeting over the weekend. He beat incumbent IFB President Brian Duncan, who two years ago defeated Nelson in a contested election to lead Illinois' largest agriculture group. Nelson served as IFB president from 2003-2013 and Illinois director of agriculture in 2015.
The election upset comes amid friction between IFB and the American Farm Bureau Federation. In November 2024, IFB sued AFBF over a dispute about membership requirements for people who buy insurance from the state organization's affiliate. AFBF then voted to expel the Illinois group, after IFB told the national farm organization that affiliate Country Financial Insurance Co. was changing its underwriting rules to no longer require policyholders to be Farm Bureau members.
Take note: Evan Hultine was reelected IFB vice president, with 52% of the vote, defeating Mark Litteken.
Spanish swine flu outbreak to deliver ‘incremental’ U.S. export gains
Spanish authorities are grappling with an outbreak of African swine fever, with 13 confirmed cases as of Monday. As countries move to curb imports from the country, it could offer some small opportunities to U.S. exporters, an industry representative says.
“There should be some incremental business for the U.S.,” U.S. Meat Export Federation Vice President for Economic Analysis Erin Borror said Monday in a weekly audio report.
Spain is Europe’s largest pork producer, accounting for around a quarter of all European Union production. The outbreak prompted a raft of countries to immediately suspend imports to avoid transmission. But most, including its largest export destination China, have since adopted a regionalization approach, only limiting imports from the affected area.
“Only about a third of Spain's exports to third country markets are fully suspended,” Borror said. Notably, Japan has adopted blanket restrictions, Borror noted, offering promise for U.S. exporters to step in and fill a supply gap. Malaysia could also deliver export opportunities, she said.
Take note: Borror said the Spanish episode should offer lessons for the U.S. on the speed at which it was able to secure regionalization.
Trump threatens 5% tariff on Mexico over water releases
Trump says he has “authorized documentation” to impose a 5% tariff on Mexico if it does not deliver more than 200,000 acre-feet of Rio Grande water to the U.S. before the end of the month.
Under a 1944 treaty, Mexico is expected to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of Rio Grande water to the U.S. over a five-year period. But when the most recent five-year cycle ended on Oct. 25, it had only delivered around half of that.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the lack of deliveries is hurting U.S. crops and livestock and added that, “Mexico is not responding” to the U.S. "The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt,” he wrote.
Take note: Language in the treaty does allow Mexico’s water debt to carry over into the next cycle, which would allow them to pay it back over the next five years. However, they will need to deliver the missing water on top of their normal 1.75 million acre-foot allocation.
Remember: Imports from Mexico not covered by a North American free trade pact remain subject to a 25% emergency tariff that Trump imposed in March.
Final Word
“Some November ‘flash’ purchases occurred even when U.S. soybeans landed roughly $80/mt above Brazilian supplies, suggesting strategic buying linked to commitments rather than pure price competitiveness… [but by] early December, cumulative U.S. sales to China reached just 2.15 MMT (17.9% of the 2025 target), implying that weekly purchases would need to accelerate to more than 2 MMT to meet the Treasury’s expectation that the 12 MMT will be fulfilled by February 2026.” – North Dakota State University Associate Professor Sandro Steinbach on the latest findings in the university’s Agricultural Trade Monitor.
Kim Chipman, Oliver Ward and Noah Wicks contributed to today’s Daybreak.
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