The ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could lead to export opportunities for U.S. ag products, although much depends on the U.S.’ next move and how consumers respond, analysts say.
U.S. forces on Saturday captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from Caracas and brought the pair to the U.S., where they face drug trafficking and other charges. In a press conference over the weekend, President Donald Trump said the U.S. will “run” Venezuela temporarily. He told reporters that the country’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has been sworn in and stands “willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again.”
Rodríguez, however, has denounced the U.S. operation and is calling for Maduro’s release.
The situation remains in flux, with the extent of Rodríguez’s cooperation with the U.S., and the future of Venezuela’s governance, still unclear. But if the U.S. maintains a role in running the country, it could lead to economic opportunities for U.S. rice exports.
The country was the eighth largest market for U.S. rice exports in 2024, according to USDA, when exports hit a 10-year high of $91 million. But exports fell sharply in 2025, recording just $17 million from January to September.
“We got outcompeted by South American interests,” Peter Bachmann, president and CEO of the USA Rice Federation, said of the decline. The change in leadership, he added, could present “an opportunity for either commercial sales to be reinstated and – or – potential food aid.”
Maduro had at times blocked U.S. food aid from entering the country, including during a 2019 leadership crisis when dozens of international governments recognized opposition figure Juan Guaidó as the legitimate Venezuelan president.
In that year, just 8 metric tons of assistance sent from the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance and Office of Food for Peace were delivered to recipients out of the 368 metric tons sent to the Colombian border, a 2021 report concluded.
If the U.S. takes a more active interest in Venezuela, Bachmann argued, it could lead to additional U.S. food assistance entering the country.
“We're cautiously optimistic about what this could mean,” Bachmann said.
However, Karen Hansen-Kuhn, director of trade and international strategies at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, warned that the manner of Maduro’s ouster and Trump’s further veiled threats to other governments in the region risk undermining any ag trade gains – and could harm U.S. trade interests.
Multiple Latin American leaders have condemned the U.S. operation and accused the Trump administration of breaking international law. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva wrote in a post to X that the U.S. had crossed “an unacceptable line.” He warned that the move risks fueling “a world of violence, chaos, and instability."
Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum issued a lengthy statement Monday in which she stressed she “categorically” rejects intervention in other countries’ domestic affairs.
“Latin American history is unequivocal. Intervention has never brought democracy, never produced well-being, and never generated lasting stability,” the statement reads.
Trump and other senior officials also hinted at further action in the region in comments over the weekend. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that he thinks the Cuban regime is “in a lot of trouble.”
“If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned,” Rubio added.
Trump also told reporters Sunday night that Colombia “is very sick.” He said the country is “run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States.”
“He’s not going to be doing it very long,” he added.
Hansen-Kuhn said if these comments and the toppling of Maduro stoke anti-American sentiments among Latin American consumers, U.S. ag and food producers could face some economic backlash.
“There's bound to be a political reaction in Latin America, given our history,” Hansen-Kuhn said. “It's entirely likely that many Latin Americans will be even less disposed to buy from [the U.S.].”
Last year during a period of intense trade frictions and repeated comments from Trump that referred to Canada as the “51st state” and hinted at annexation, Canadian consumers eschewed U.S. food and beverages, for example.
“It is early days, and I guess we'll have to see how this all plays out,” Hansen-Kuhn said.
Bachmann said this is a particular concern for the Colombian market. When frictions between Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro erupted last year, Bachmann said U.S. rice sales dipped.
Colombia is also in the process of gradually phasing out a tariff on U.S. rice, and the U.S. industry is anxious to fully capitalize on the improved market access.
“We are obviously cautious about what could happen with Colombia moving forward,” he said. “However, the rest of Latin America having an anti-American sentiment; I am not as worried about that.”
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