American farmer sentiment dropped sharply in January as economic anxieties intensified, according to the monthly Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The index fell to 113 in January from 136 in December, with the future expectations index declining 25 points. Half the producers surveyed reported their operations were worse off than a year ago, while 30% anticipated further deterioration over the next 12 months.
Export concerns have deepened significantly. Some 16% of respondents expected agricultural exports to decline over five years, up from just 5% in December. Among corn and soybean growers, 21% predicted declining soybean exports, with 80% expressing concern about Brazilian competition.
The barometer's farm capital investment index dropped to 47, its lowest reading since October 2024. Only 4% plan to increase machinery purchases this year.
Operating debt emerged as a troubling factor. Among farmers expecting larger loans this year, 31% cited unpaid debt from prior years, which is up from 5% in 2023.
"As in the last few months, producers were asked if the U.S. is headed in the 'right direction' or on the 'wrong track,'" according to a summary of the survey. "The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the 'right direction' dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026."
The share of those who said it's on the "wrong track" jumped from 25% to 38%, a 52% increase.
The survey of 400 agricultural producers was conducted Jan. 12-16.
