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Farmers and policymakers are long accustomed to market cycles in agriculture and have long counted on low prices eventually giving way to price increases.
But today’s farm economy faces more significant structural challenges than in the past, due in part to weight-loss drugs, the Make America Healthy Again movement and growing competition from Brazil, says a top industry leader.
“Those are structural changes that demand that the market respond,” said Duane Simpson, who took over last July as president and CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives.
The MAHA movement and the Trump administration’s new dietary guidelines are good for the meat and dairy industries, because of the emphasis on protein consumption. MAHA’s impact on agriculture so far is mixed, in Simpson’s view.
“Because of how the dietary guidelines are implemented across government purchasing, you're going to see that that's going to eventually impact dairy and protein in particular, but also fruits and vegetables. You're going to see more consumption there,” Simpson said in an interview on the sidelines of NCFC’s annual meeting this week in San Antonio.
On the other hand, the administration’s nutrition messaging and its discouragement of carbs and added sugars pose challenges for other sectors, Simpson said.
“I'm drinking an orange juice right now; they would tell me not to do that,” Simpson said. “I don't know that all of that is backed up by the soundest science, and [there is] probably an opportunity to look further at it.”
There also are ongoing concerns about MAHA initiatives at the state level and litigation around ultraprocessed foods, for which the Food and Drug Administration is currently writing a definition. A Super Bowl ad that went viral with former boxer Mike Tyson carried the slogan, “Processed Food Kills.”
“I think that there is a real and justified concern around how ultraprocessed foods is going to be defined, and how that's going to fit into, not only the dietary guidelines, but into the litigation landscape. I think that food companies have every reason to be nervous,” said Simpson.
Still, Simpson insists it’s a good time for young farmers to be getting into agriculture.
“They are not burdened with having to having all of their history built up saying, 'I am this type of farmer with this type of equipment, this type of debt, what have you.' … They can choose to fill the market needs that maybe aren't being filled today. And so, I do think that there's opportunity there.”
Those same young farmers should consider getting involved with local co-ops to better manage their risk during downturns, Simpson said.
“Young farmers are not as attached to the cooperatives as their fathers, their grandfathers, their great-grandfathers,” he said, “Where cooperatives have really shined over the years is when you see those downturns.”
NCFC members represent a sweeping array of commodities – from grains, to cranberries and almonds, to dairy and eggs – and all along the supply chain, from crop inputs to farms to prominent consumer brands.
Trade 'volatility' poses challenge in near term
Simpson describes the administration’s trade policy as a “mixed bag” for agriculture. Uncertainty resulting from the impact of retaliatory tariffs on ag exports continues to weigh on the sector. “The volatility is probably the biggest challenge,” he said. But farmers also stand to benefit from the administration’s efforts to reduce nontariff barriers through ongoing negotiations, in his view.
“We have markets that have been hard for American farmers to get into … and the administration is working to get those open,” he said. “We've seen some of those — at least announced, not necessarily everything written down yet — and we're excited about that at the same time as we go through this process. You know, we’re the No. 1 target of any retaliation.”
Trump needs to weigh in on ag labor reform, Simpson says
NCFC has long been a leader in pushing Congress to pass ag labor reform. Simpson's predecessor, Chuck Conner, helped negotiate a compromise plan in 2013 as part of a broader immigration reform bill that ultimately died in the House.
House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., is expected to introduce an ag labor bill in the coming days. But his committee doesn’t have jurisdiction over the issue, the Judiciary Committee does.
Ultimately, it’s going to take President Donald Trump personally getting behind legislation. In recent years, congressional Republicans have argued that they couldn’t pass immigration and ag labor reforms until the border was secure.
“I think that this president has a Nixon-to-China moment still left in him. When it comes to immigration, there is nobody that is better respected on this issue amongst immigration hardliners than President Trump,” Simpson said.
“We've got leaders in Congress that are going to get us started. But to push this across the finish line, the president of the United States is going to eventually going to have to say, This is the policy that fits my agenda.”
‘Shoe-leather’ lobbying not enough anymore
Extending the co-ops’ influence in Washington on labor and other issues is requiring NCFC to shift how it tries to influence policymakers.
“We just have to take Washington as it is and not wish it was better,” he said. “Instead, we've got to engage in new ways. Right now, people, policymakers, care as much about clicks, likes and mentions as they do about, you know, phone calls and emails.”
While NCFC will continue to do D.C. fly-ins and bring lawmakers to the cooperatives, the organization needs to build a grassroots network as well to “deliver the clicks, likes and mentions,” Simpson said. “We've got great shoe-leather lobbyists, but that's not enough anymore.”
