Farm and food industry leaders make the case on Capitol Hill for buying American products, and the Department of Agriculture puts out new crop forecasts as extreme conflict in the Middle East disrupts global ag supply chains. 

A second week of U.S. military strikes on Iran are roiling energy, fertilizer and shipping markets. Prices for crop nutrients like nitrogen are climbing higher as vessel traffic in Strait of Hormuz has been at a standstill. A third of the world’s fertilizer passes through the gateway between the Persian Gulf and open ocean. 

A block by Iran on the maritime passage, along with cargo insurance cancellations that are causing fewer fertilizer shipments through other parts of the region, could affect North American farmers during spring plantings that are just weeks away from starting. 

“From urea to phosphates, global supply disruptions are already creating pressure on availability and prices,” The Fertilizer Institute said on social media. 

High fertilizer prices were a major complaint of financially strapped crop growers prior to the conflict. A pullback in acres, or reduced fertilizer applications that lead to reduced yields, would put the world at risk for a new round of escalating food inflation. 

The latest challenges will be up for discussion when American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall and other top ag group executives appear before a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing on domestic consumption of U.S. products. The hearing is the first this year for the panel headed by Chairman John Boozman, R-Ark.

Ag policy watchers will be listening for hints on how the Arkansas Republican plans to proceed with a Senate version of a farm bill after the House Ag Committee approved legislation last week. The hearing takes place Tuesday afternoon, a few hours after USDA releases its latest monthly crop estimates. While no major changes had been expected, there’s now a question of whether the report will factor in the Middle East turmoil. 

E15 watch goes on

House members are away from Washington all week. That likely means further delay of any potential progress of a congressional council tasked with coming up with a plan to pass legislation allowing year-round U.S. sales of higher-ethanol blends, known as E15. The E15 council’s co-chair, GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra of Iowa, told Agri-Pulse  last Thursday that legislation should be finalized soon and introduced the week of March 16.

The Iran conflict is adding urgency in the push for E15, with biofuel lobbying groups saying the corn-based renewable fuel is crucial for national security and tempering cost spikes at the gasoline pump.

As of mid last week, gasoline futures were up almost 50% year-to-date compared with a 13% rise for ethanol, the widest gap in nearly two years, according to No Bull Ag analyst Susan Stroud. 

Renewable volume obligations due soon

Meanwhile, after months of delay, the Environmental Protection Agency could release biofuel-usage quotas, or renewable volume obligations, as soon as this week. EPA has said in court documents it plans to issue final 2026-27 RVOs by the end of March. 

Brett Gibbs, a renewable fuels equity research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, tells Agri-Pulse Newsmakers he expects “one of the most robust biomass-based diesel mandates to date.” 

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A big question is if the nationwide blending mandates will include a financial incentive for using U.S. biofuel feedstocks, like soybean oil and waste fats for making green diesel. Gibbs believes the so-called “half-RIN” plan will probably be left out of the final RVOs, but that this shouldn’t diminish the overall pro-ag signal of the regulations.

“The strong volumes alone will be supportive to the bio producer's margin and require a lot of feedstock,” Gibbs said. “When you layer that in with the tax credit changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, we see it very constructive for ag.” 

Rising soybean oil prices underscores the market expectation for bullish RVOs, he added. 

Former USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer, who now leads the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, also is optimistic.

“Even if they pull back some parts … it was an incredibly aggressive RVO to begin with,” Meyer explained. “So as you think about that, I think it is supportive, especially for the biodiesel sector.” As far as possible last-minute changes to the EPA’s blending mandate due to the situation in the Middle East, Gibbs says don’t count on it. “The RVO itself is very much done,” he said.

Impending tariff hike? 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled last week that the administration could raise its 10% global tariff to 15% within days. 

Whether the increase will inflame tensions with allies will depend on the details though. 

Here are some elements that Agri-Pulse will be watching for in any proclamation: 

  • Will the hike apply uniformly? A number of countries, including the United Kingdom and Argentina, received reciprocal tariff rates of 10% as part of their deals. A 15% tariff would therefore break the terms of those deals. 
  • Will it stack on existing tariffs? If the new 15% duty comes on top of existing product-specific, most-favored nation duties, the European Union will surely balk.  The bloc made a deal last summer to cap tariffs at 15%. 
  • More carveouts? U.S. ag groups have been pushing for additional carve outs for U.S. agricultural inputs. The 10% global tariff already includes exclusions for fertilizer and pharmaceuticals, but whether the administration will opt to expand those carveouts under pressure from industry and some lawmakers is something to watch. 

Bessent and U.S. trade representatives could also meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss Trump’s upcoming China summit as soon as this week, according to Bloomberg. 

Trump says he has already raised the prospect of increasing Chinese soybean purchases with President Xi Jinping, but beyond soybeans, there are plenty of issues industry groups are hoping could come up – including a slate of expired registrations for U.S. beef export facilities that are strangling shipments to the country.

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Buy more American? 

The Senate Ag Committee hearing on efforts to increase domestic consumption of U.S. ag products is expected to focus in part on school meal import waivers. 

Food purchases from other nations for school meal programs aren’t supposed to exceed 10%, but the Trump administration granted a waiver for the 2025-26 school year.  

“It's a big problem,” Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, told USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg last week at a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing.  

Groups representing specialty crop growers and processors wrote to Trump administration officials in November, urging them to scrap the import waivers. 

Cold-weather and diesel 

Members of the Senate Environment Committee on Wednesday meet to discuss possible changes to EPA regulations to address engine shutdowns caused by diesel exhaust fluid being too cold.

The hearing will center around the Cold Weather Reliability Act, a bill proposed by Sens. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., that would require EPA to adjust its emission system regulations to limit automatic shutdowns during cold weather. It would also allow year-round exemptions from DEF system requirements for vehicles operating primarily in cold-weather climates. 

Witnesses will include Todd Fornstrom, president of the Wyoming Farm Bureau Federation.

Here is a list of agriculture or rural-related events scheduled for this week in Washington and elsewhere (all times EDT):

Monday, March 9

School Nutrition Association legislative action conference, through Tuesday, JW Marriott. 

National Farmers Union convention, New Orleans. 

The American Feed Industry Association’s annual Purchasing & Ingredient Suppliers Conference, a gathering of buyers and sellers of feed and pet food ingredients. Fort Worth, Texas, through Wednesday. 

Tuesday, March 10

Noon – USDA releases its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, report.  

3 p.m. – Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, “Increasing Domestic Consumption of U.S.-Grown Agricultural Products,” 106 Dirksen. 

Wednesday, March 11

10 a.m. – Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing to examine S. 3135, the Cold Weather Diesel Reliability Act, 562 Dirksen.

Thursday, March 12

8:30 a.m. – USDA weekly export sales 

Friday, March 13

The Farm Bureau Young Farmers & Ranchers Leadership Conference, Portland, Oregon, through March 16. 

For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.