As American farmers prepare for the 2026 planting season, they are still struggling to find the best opportunity for profitability. Commodity prices are down and input costs, like fertilizer, are up, eating away on-farm margins. Fertilizer prices were already higher than last year, and the latest bi-weekly USDA price survey shows higher prices have continued for all eight of the major fertilizer products during the second week of March.

The price of fertilizer is only part of the story, however. Limited supply is the key factor driving up prices. Prices are rising due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East produces a lot of fertilizers, like urea, anhydrous and phosphorous, and nearly half of global sulfur exports need to move through the Straits of Hormuz. Phosphate fertilizers such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate cannot be produced without sulfur or sulfuric acid. Sulfur prices tripled in 2025, and the closure of the trade route is only going to escalate prices.

With slow traffic through the Straits of Hormuz, some products may be difficult to source from the Middle East in time for spring planting. An estimated 20% to 25% of U.S. farmers haven’t bought all of their spring supplies for 2026. If they cannot get fertilizer in time, it could change farmers’ acreage plans, further complicating the dynamics of the grain and oilseeds market.

The Trump administration has made clear that supporting America’s farmers is a top priority for this year. Achieving those goals, however, will require tackling the challenge of the restricted supply of fertilizer that continues to drive up costs for America’s farms and, consequently, consumers. To date, there have been positive steps.

On March 13, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced that it will ease restrictions on U.S. entities purchasing petrochemical products from Venezuela, including fertilizers and precursors to fertilizers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said this move “expands Venezuelan fertilizer exports to the U.S., bolstering the supply of this important agricultural input.” Treasury’s announcement comes after the Trump administration also exempted certain fertilizer imports from the reciprocal tariffs imposed in April 2025, except for ammonium products.

Finally, the International Trade Commission announced its five-year review of the countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer from Morocco required under the Uruguay Round Agreement Act. Under that statute, CVDs are subject to a review on whether they should remain in place five years after they were imposed. The deadline to start the review is coming up this month, as the CVDs were imposed by the Biden administration in March 2021.

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Morocco, which is home to the world’s largest reserve of phosphate, accounting for about 70 percent of the world’s phosphate rock, is a traditional supplier of phosphorous fertilizer to the U.S. With the addition of those Biden-era CVDs, the U.S. had punitive duties and/or trade restrictions imposed on 85 percent of the world’s tradeable supply of phosphate, further constricting the supply and ultimately raising prices. According to a January 2026 study by the Agriculture and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University, those tariffs, set at 19.97%, ultimately raised the price of DAP by 28.6%. The CVDs increased the cost of phosphorous fertilizer across a subset of major crops by an estimated $6.9 billion from 2021 through 2025.

Commodity groups banded together to send a letter to Mosaic and Simplot, the two largest suppliers of phosphorous fertilizer, urging them to renounce their support for the CVDs imposed on Morocco and on Russia. The group included the National Corn Growers Association, American Soybean Association, American Farm Bureau Federation, USA Rice and dozens of smaller groups. The letter stated:

“Fertilizer manufacturers like The Mosaic Company and J.R. Simplot can immediately help alleviate some suffering in the agricultural economy by renouncing their support for continued CVDs.”

However, both companies have already filed comments with the ITC opposing the lifting of the CVDs and requesting their extension. Depending on the outcome of the sunset review, the ITC has a perfect opportunity to end the CVDs now when relief is needed most. Given the current geopolitical landscape, taking action to end these CVDs is critical.

Dave Juday is an agricultural economist and commodity market analyst, and founder and principal of The Juday Group.