When fertilizer flows are disrupted, the effects move through global supply chains in ways that are difficult to contain. Reduced fertilizer use is likely to result in lower yields and translate into higher prices. It is a pattern we have seen before, and geopolitical pressures are once again creating the conditions for a food security crisis.
Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global fertilizer trade, with up to 30 per cent now unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf countries, including Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman, are major suppliers of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers and the raw material for their production. The UN has warned of systemic risks to global food production, particularly in import-dependent regions across Africa and South Asia. American farmers have largely secured their supplies, but the impact of the estimated two-million-ton deficit may still be felt along supply chains and eventually in grocery stores.
Fertilizer shortages can push farmers to reduce applications or shift to less fertilizer intensive crops. Yields fall and food prices rise. Higher energy costs, passed through to processing, transportation and refrigeration, compound the pressure further.
As planting seasons get underway, the effects of the conflict in the Middle East are still emerging. Food prices have not yet seen significant increases, but the conditions are forming. History shows how quickly food insecurity can have a destabilizing impact. When global food prices spiked in 2007–08 and again in 2010–11, food riots broke out in more than 40 countries. Research shows that high and volatile food prices played a part in the Arab Spring. The link between food security and national security is clear.
Agricultural research makes a direct difference. At CGIAR, we have spent decades developing the crop varieties that now underpin a significant share of staple food production both in low- and middle-income countries across the Global South and in high-income countries like the United States.
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Our work on nitrogen fixation, where crops source a key nutrient through biological processes rather than from fertilizer, along with microbial soil health and alternatives to conventional fertilizer, is giving farmers practical options that reduce their vulnerability. Digital advisory services are informing better real-time decisions on balanced and efficient fertilizer use. And our research and data are also helping governments scale up new technologies, as well as informing policy and investment decisions. The current crisis reaffirms the importance of this work.
Enabling farmers worldwide to maintain productivity through geopolitical shocks is not charity. It protects American prosperity and reduces the conditions that give rise to instability. Our work on improved wheat varieties, for example, has added millions of tons to production across Africa, Asia and the Middle East, reducing the supply vulnerability that turns a bad harvest into a crisis. Those same varieties have strengthened the disease resistance of crops that American producers depend on for export markets. This is what strategic investment in agriculture looks like in practice: benefits that compound season after season, at home and abroad.
The fertilizer crisis is a reminder that food insecurity is not contained within borders. With one in 10 Americans employed in agrifood and related industries, a stronger agricultural sector means more competitive exports and more stable prices for consumers. U.S.-backed agricultural research also delivers something harder to quantify: when developing nations build food security, the instability that drives humanitarian crises and mass migration recedes. Those are outcomes that serve American interests.
The ask is not complicated. Increased investment in agricultural research pays for itself many times over. It delivers more resilient supply chains, stronger export markets, and fewer of the crises that cost far more to manage than to prevent. At a time when geopolitical risk is rising and food systems are fragile, world leaders must not stand still. America has the research base and global reach to shape a more food-secure world. Investing in agricultural innovation is not aid — it’s smart politics.
Ismahane Elouafi is the executive managing director of CGIAR, the world's largest publicly funded agricultural research network.