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The U.S. International Trade Commission and the Commerce Department are investigating Mexico for selling winter strawberries at prices below fair value, which is impacting regional Florida and national growers, according to a petition filed by Strawberry Growers for Fair Trade.
The petition stating that Mexico materially injured U.S. producers was filed with the DOC on Dec. 31, 2025, launching a 13-month investigation. A decision as to whether or not to tariff Mexican winter strawberries is expected in early 2027, when the investigation concludes.
“If this case is successful, it's going to provide relief to strawberry growers in the United States — that tariffs are going to be put in place equal to the amount of unfair pricing and, therefore, it should allow American growers to either sell more strawberries, or sell more strawberries at a reasonable level of profitability, or hopefully a little of both,” Daniel B. Pickard, the head of Buchanan Ingersoll and Rooney's International Trade and National Security practice and lead counsel for SGFT, told Agri-Pulse.
This case marks the first time Mexico is facing an antidumping case for winter strawberries, Pickard said. However, Mexico has a long history of dumping allegations for its exports of fresh tomatoes to the U.S. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative recently opted to maintain an approximate 17% antidumping order against Mexican tomatoes.
SGFT is not alone in their concern. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to investigate allegations that Mexico is dumping strawberries into the U.S. market during peak winter harvest and sale season.
“You cannot have winter strawberries that are tasty from Mexico,” Scott told Agri-Pulse. “Mexico dumps stuff that hurts all of our crops in Florida, but especially our blueberries, our strawberries. We've worked hard on the tomato issue.”
The July 2 press release on the letter states that from November 2024 through March 2025, Mexican strawberries that entered the U.S. market exceeded 200 million kilograms — a value of $933 million. Florida produces 15% of America’s strawberries, the release said. The USITC will use figures from the past three calendar years to determine if there was injury.
“They're dumping the stuff in the country, and it's impacting Florida farmers,” Scott said, noting that the investigation needs to be thorough.
The USITC voted in February to continue investigating the winter strawberry case because there is evidence that U.S. producers were materially injured. The DOC is currently working on its preliminary determination.
“The petition alleged particularly high dumping margins. The Department of Commerce is actually calculating the extent of unfair pricing right now, and those calculations will come out August 18th,” Pickard said.
The DOC will calculate the dumping margin using the rates from the two biggest producers from Mexico: Mainland Farms and Driscoll’s, Pickard said. Mainland Farms and Driscoll’s didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Within 15 days of the DOC preliminary determination, Mexican exporters can submit a suspension agreement. Mexico would have to drop the unfair prices as part of the settlement if they chose that path, according to Pickard.
Scott said “we’re still working on it” when asked if he received a response from Lutnick on his letter.
“This is not competition — it is a targeted effort to drive American family farms out of business, and it follows the same playbook Mexico has used against Florida’s tomato, blueberry, bell pepper, and many other specialty crop growers for nearly 30 years,” Scott said in the July 2 letter.
Scott said that he anticipates, upon completion of the case, that revenue will be transferred to Florida farmers. Pickard similarly said he expects U.S. farmers’ market share to grow.
“I don't know if I have a quantifiable number, but it makes sense that the U.S. industry is in a position to kind of step into the shoes of that market share that would be abandoned by the unfairly priced imports,” Pickard said.
Pickard further said that he’s not anticipating a “dramatic” increase in winter strawberry prices.
“I don't think it's going to shock the wallets of U.S. consumers, but in the long run, it allows for increased viability of U.S. growers, which means more capacity is brought online in the United States, which means you've got more made in the U.S.A. agricultural products,” he said.
Other tariff avenues
Winter strawberry producers have other avenues to seek relief rather than seeking an antidumping case through the USITC and DOC.
Producers could pursue levies under Section 232 or Section 301. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs using those sectoral authorities for a number of products, including steel, aluminum and lumber, among others.
“All of those have an element of political discretion and uncertainty as far as how long they're going to last. In an antidumping case, if you prove dumping and you prove material injury, then you get relief as a matter of law without any political discretion involved,” Pickard said.
That relief would stay in place for five years and can then be renewed for another five years. The cycle would continue as long as the need to prevent dumping remains. The sectoral tariffs, on the other hand, could be eliminated once a new administration comes to power.
Impact on USMCA
This case comes as the U.S. is working on negotiating changes to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. On July 1, USTR announced that it wouldn’t renew the USMCA in its current state. The agreement is still in place for another decade and will continue to undergo regular reviews.
The U.S. is meeting with Mexican officials in Mexico City this week to discuss bilateral USMCA negotiations. House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chair Adrian Smith, R-Neb., said the negotiations shouldn’t be a deterrent in the winter strawberry case.
“Right in the middle of USMCA discussions, I think we shouldn't be afraid of conversations we need to have. Keeping in mind we want to land with some good policy that helps the American people,” Smith told Agri-Pulse.
If the ICT and DOC determine that the dumping allegations are sound, winter strawberries would be exempt from the duty-free treatment under the USMCA, according to Pickard.
