By Nina Fedoroff, Ken Cassman and Marshall Matz
The Ghost of Christmas Future is the most fearsome
character in "The Christmas Carol," Charles Dickens' beloved
Christmas story, giving Scrooge a glimpse of his bleak future. Horrified,
Scrooge changes his selfish lifestyle in a heartbeat.
An abundant Thanksgiving 2014 is almost upon us. But like
Scrooge, we'll need a dramatic change in our beliefs if we're to have a
plenitude of healthful food not just for us, but for all of the 9 or so billion
expected at the global dinner table on Thanksgiving 2050.
The beliefs and narratives that need rethinking are those
around GMOs and organic food.
Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are crop plants and
animals improved by modern molecular techniques, rather than older, often less
precise methods. GM crops, such as insect-resistant corn and cotton, have been
in commercial production for almost two decades. They are now grown in 27
countries on more than 400 million acres by 18 million farmers, more than 90
percent of whom are resource-poor, small-holder farmers.
GM crops have increased farm
income, reduced pesticide use, soil erosion and carbon dioxide
emission, and benefited consumers by decreasing fungal toxin contamination of
corn.
It's a fact that neither people nor animals have been
harmed by consuming food or feed containing GM ingredients. Even decade ago, we
thought that people would be reassured as evidence grew, as it has, that GM
crops are safe. But that's not what happened. Instead, more and more people
have come to believe that they are dangerous.
America's Thanksgiving 2014 will be a plentiful feast.
Farmers have gotten very good at coaxing food from the land. Over the second
half of the 20th century, the number of people on Earth doubled, yet the amount
of food tripled. Mechanization, plant genetics, irrigation and synthetic
fertilizers all contributed to the today's food abundance.
But the notions that organically grown food is more
healthful than food produced by conventional methods and that organic is the
only sustainable agriculture are gaining traction, as is the idea that
conventional agriculture and synthetic fertilizers are somehow bad.
So what are the facts? Organically grown food is not more
healthful than conventionally grown food. Plants don't care whether their
nitrogen comes from manure or a sack of fertilizer. Organic produce is more
expensive because organic farming is less productive than conventional farming.
Nor is it sustainable on a global scale. Indeed, if the whole world relied on
organic farming, we could feed about half of today's 7 billion people.
What's the forecast for Thanksgiving 2050? Although they had little
effect on the world's affluent city-dwellers, food price spikes since 2008
unleashed food riots in many poor countries and brought down governments.
Indeed, the Arab spring started with food riots. This means that today's
abundance has a razor-thin margin.
It's been estimated that to meet the challenge of global
food security, the world's farmers will have to produce more food in the next
50 years than all they've produced in the last 10,000 years combined. Can they?
There's deep reason for concern.
Important crops are reaching their yield plateaus in
major food-producing countries. Because demand continues to rise, much of the
recent increase in food production has come from putting more land under crops.
Yet we're beginning to understand that our planet's resources are finite and
that its biodiversity is precious.
We need instead to slow and stop conversion of natural
ecosystems to cropland.
In developing countries, particularly in Africa,
farmers can still grow much, much more. Organic farming is what most African
farmers do now, and most of them are devastatingly poor. They need good seeds,
fertilizer, agri-chemicals, training and information to triple their yields,
not organic ideology that seeks to prevent access to modern farming inputs.
They also need the entire infrastructure that supports modern food systems and
the training to run it.
That's what will put them on the road out of poverty.
Our belief systems and
narratives matter, perhaps more than ever in
the age of electronic social media. The organic food industry supplies a mere 4
percent of our food, but amplifies its message by promulgating the myth that
organic food is more healthful and environmentally sound.
As well, GMO story-telling and fear-mongering have
intensified in recent years, driven by individuals and organizations that
profit from persuading people that they are dangerous. This is influencing
politicians worldwide and impeding the development and introduction of more
nutritious, hardy and environmentally friendly GM crops and animals.
Belief systems are notoriously resistant to facts, even
mountains of them. And real people don't change their minds and hearts as fast
as characters in stories.
But we urgently need to change our beliefs about food to
realize the benefits of investing in advanced, science-based food production
systems that can address the difficult challenges of making our agriculture
both more sustainable and productive even as our numbers continue to grow.
About the authors: Nina Fedoroff, Ph.D., is a plant biologist and served as
science and technology adviser to the secretary of state from 2007-10. Ken
Cassman, Ph.D., is an international agronomist at the University of Nebraska.
Marshall Matz was counsel to the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee specializing
in nutrition and food security. Contact: mmatz@ofwlaw.com
This opinion piece first appeared in the Des Moines Register
#30
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