WASHINGTON, Dec. 2, 2015 - With lower prices, stronger competition and diminishing demand from China, USDA lowered its forecast for fiscal 2016 agricultural exports to $131.5 billion, down $7.0 billion from the August forecast and $8.2 billion below final fiscal 2015 exports. Grain and feed exports are forecast down $3.8 billion to $28.6 billion, as decreasing trade prospects with China sharply reduce sorghum and distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) exports.
Wheat exports are forecast down $1.2 billion to $5.5 billion, a result of lower volume as ample exporter supplies and a strong dollar limit competitiveness outside of traditional U.S. markets, USDA reported. Oilseed exports are forecast at $26.3 billion, down $400 million in response to lower soybean and product prices. Cotton exports are forecast down $500 million as a result of lower prices, which are under pressure from large stocks in China.
The forecast for livestock, poultry, and dairy is lowered $2.2 billion largely due to depressed prices for beef and pork spurred by increased supplies. Horticultural exports are unchanged at a record $36.5 billion.
U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at a record $122 billion, down $0.5 billion from August, but $8.0 billion higher than in fiscal 2015. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at $9.5 billion, down from $25.7 billion in fiscal 2015 and the lowest level since fiscal 2006. For the full report, click here: