WASHINGTON,
MAY 10 – Citing lower feed and residual disappearance, USDA projected higher
domestic corn ending stocks for 2011-12, raising estimates to 851 million
bushels compared to the April estimate of 801 million bushels. U.S. soybean
supplies for 2011-12 were reduced by 40 million bushels, and wheat stocks were
lowered by 25 million bushels.
“The large year-to-year increase in winter wheat production and attractive prices for wheat relative to corn are expected to raise summer wheat feeding,” USDA noted in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released today.
For the 2012/13 season, USDA says U.S. feed grain supplies are projected at a record 416.3 million tons, up 16 percent from 2011/12 with higher area and production for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats.
The
2012/13 corn yield is projected at a record 166.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels
above the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the rapid pace of planting and emergence.
Despite the lowest expected carryin in 16 years, corn supplies for 2012/13 are
projected at a record 15.7 billion bushels, up 2.2 billion from 2011/12.
USDA
is also projecting corn for ethanol use to be 5 billion bushels for the 2012/13
marketing year.
Here
are some other highlights from today’s reports:
U.S.
oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 97.0 million tons, up 6 percent
from 2011/12. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase, but sunflower
seed, canola, peanut, and cottonseed production also are all projected above
last year.
Soybean
production is projected at 3.205 billion bushels, up from the 2011 crop as
higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Harvested area is
projected at 73.0 million acres based on a 5-year average harvested-to-planted
ratio and planted area of 73.9 million acres. Soybean yields are projected at
43.9 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from 2011.
With
beginning stocks projected at 210 million bushels, 2012/13 soybean supplies are
projected at 3.43 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2011/12.
U.S.
soybean crush for 2012/13 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, almost
unchanged from 2011/12 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean
meal use. Total soybean meal use is projected down 1 percent as reduced exports
are only partly offset by gains in domestic use. Increased soybean meal exports
from Paraguay and Argentina are expected to exceed the limited gains in global
import demand, resulting in reduced U.S. export prospects.
With
increased 2012/13 U.S. soybean supplies and sharply lower South American
soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.505
billion bushels, up 190 million from 2011/12. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are
projected at 145 million bushels, down 65 million from 2011/12, leaving the
stocks-to-use ratio at a historically low 4.4 percent. The U.S. season-average
soybean price for 2012/13 is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel compared
with $12.35 per bushel in 2011/12. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $335 to
$365 per short ton, compared with $360. Soybean oil prices are projected at
52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound compared with 53.5 cents for 2011/12.
The
2012/13 outlook for U.S. wheat is for larger supplies and use, but lower
prices. All wheat production is projected at 2,245 million bushels, up 12
percent from last year’s weather-reduced crop and the highest since 2008/09.
The
all wheat yield, projected at 45.7 bushels per acre, is up 2.0 bushels from
last year, but 0.6 bushels below the 2010/11 level. The survey-based forecast
for 2012/13 winter wheat production is up 13 percent with a forecast yield of
47.6 bushels per acre as a recovery in yields in the southern and central
Plains boost Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production sharply from the previous
year.
Partly
offsetting is lower forecast production for Soft Red Winter wheat and White
wheat compared with last year. Spring wheat production for 2012/13 is expected
to rebound with a recovery in durum area and higher projected yields for other
spring wheat, which are expected to offset the decline in other spring area.
U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 3,133 million bushels, up 5
percent from 2011/12.
Total
U.S. wheat use for 2012/13 is projected up 8 percent year-to-year on higher
expected domestic use and exports. Food use is projected at 945 million
bushels, up 15 million from 2011/12 as flour extraction rates are expected to
decline modestly from historical highs in recent years and consumption grows
with population. Feed and residual use is projected at 230 million bushels, up
50 million from the 2011/12 projection as favorable wheat prices relative to
corn and larger HRW supplies boost summer quarter wheat feed and residual
disappearance.
U.S.
exports for 2012/13 are projected at 1,150 million bushels, up 125 million from
this month’s 25-million-bushel higher projection for 2011/12. Larger supplies,
more competitive prices, and an early expected start to this year’s harvest
open the door to higher demand for U.S. wheat during the coming months. U.S.
ending stocks are projected to continue their decline from the recent high in
2009/10. At a projected 735 million bushels, 2012/13 ending stocks are expected
down 33 million from 2011/12 and 241 million below 2009/10. The season-average
farm price for all wheat is projected at $5.50 to $6.70 per bushel, down
sharply from the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.
The
WASDE report estimated tighter rice ending stocks and higher prices for
2012/13, with stocks down 21 percent from 2011/12. U.S. 2012/13 all rice
supplies are forecast at 239.0 million cwt, down 6 percent from 2011/12.
The
U.S. 2012/13 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $14.50
to $15.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $13.20 to $13.60 for the previous
year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.25 to
$18.25 per cwt, compared to $15.50 to $15.90 for a year earlier. The 2012/13
all rice price is projected at $15.30 to $16.30 per cwt, compared to a revised
$13.90 to $14.30 per cwt for 2011/12.
Projected
U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is down 2.4 percent from 2011/12, as
lower imports more than offset higher production and beginning stocks. Higher
beet sugar production reflects higher area and trend yields, while cane sugar
production is nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Imports under the tariff
rate quota (TRQ) reflect the minimum of U.S. commitments to import raw and
refined sugar and projected shortfall.
Total
U.S. meat production in 2013 is projected to be above 2012 as higher pork and
poultry production more than offsets continued declines in beef production.
Lower forecast feed costs and relatively strong, albeit declining hog, broiler,
and turkey prices are expected to provide incentives for continued pork and
poultry expansion.
Pork
production is expected to increase at about the same rate as 2012 as producers
increase farrowings modestly, but the number of pigs per litter continues to
grow. Broiler and turkey production for 2013 are also forecast higher as
producers benefit from lower feed costs; however, increasing production will
weigh on broiler and turkey prices, moderating the rate of expansion. Beef
production will decline in 2013 due to tighter supplies of fed cattle and lower
cow slaughter. Egg production is expected to decline in 2013 as producer
returns in 2012 are affected by sharply lower egg prices.
For
2013, cattle prices are forecast above 2012 due to tight supplies of fed
cattle. Hog, broiler, and turkey prices are forecast to decline from 2012 as
production increases for all three meats. Egg prices are forecast higher on
lower production.
Milk
production for 2013 is forecast to increase slightly. High feed prices and
weakening milk prices during 2012 are expected to pressure producer returns,
leading to declines in 2013 cow numbers. However, improvements in returns
during 2013 will moderate the rate of decline. Milk per cow is expected to
continue to grow, supporting increased milk production.
Commercial
exports are forecast to increase as the global economy improves and milk
production increases. Imports will be slightly lower as domestic supplies
increase. With improving demand and only modest increases in production,
cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are forecast higher. Whey
prices will average near 2012 levels. Both Class III and Class IV prices are
forecast higher, and the all milk price is forecast at $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt
for 2013.
The
U.S. cotton projections for 2012/13 include higher supply, demand, and ending
stocks compared with 2011/12. Projected production is raised 9 percent based on
Prospective Plantings and average yields. Above-average abandonment is
projected at 20 percent due to continued drought on the Texas High Plains.
Domestic mill use is projected at 3.5 million bales, 100,000 bales above
2011/12. Exports are projected at 12.0 million bales, 5 percent above last
season due to the larger available supplies.
Ending
stocks are raised to 4.9 million bales. The projected stocks-to-use ratio of 32
percent is well above the last three seasons, but only slightly above the
10-year average of 30 percent. The forecast range for the marketing-year
average price received by producers is 65 to 85 cents per pound, compared with
91.0 cents estimated for 2011/12.
For
the full USDA reports, go to:
WASDE:
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
Crop
Production:
http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-05-10-2012.
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