Agricultural productivity continues to fall below the needed targets to meet the global demands of feeding nearly 10 billion people by 2050 as outlined by the latest Global Agricultural Productivity report.
Released annually by Virginia Tech in collaboration with additional technical partners, the report points to the need to sustainably increase production without increasing — possibly even decreasing — inputs.
The report cites total factor productivity, a measurement of increased producer output while using the same or less inputs such as land, labor, capital or fertilizer. If TFP is not seen, marginal or wild agricultural lands are brought into production and input intensification occurs. The report noted that TFP growth is strong in China and South Asia, but “well below target across most of the globe. Sub-Saharan Africa and the United States show especially low TFP growth,” the report said.
“Since 2011, global agricultural productivity has been only 1.14% annually, well below the rate needed (1.73% annual growth) to sustainably supply the world with agricultural products by 2050,” Thomas Thomspon, dean at Virginia Tech’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, said in a statement to Agri-Pulse. “As a result, annual global productivity growth now needs to average 1.91% between now and 2050.
“Therefore, we now have a steeper hill to climb, and if productivity growth continues to lag, the gap will further widen, making it increasingly difficult to close,” Thompson said.
When the GAP report was first published in 2010, it estimated that average annual TFP growth would need to be 1.73%. From 2001-2010 TFP growth was 1.93%. As a result of “sluggish TFP growth” during 2011-21, the report now estimates an upward growth of 1.91% needed to achieve sustainable production of global agricultural needs by 2050.
“Low TFP growth suggests that both the pace of innovation and the adoption of agricultural innovations are declining.” The report said this may “exacerbate already high levels of food insecurity and malnutrition and threaten the prospects for agriculture-led economic growth in many nations.”
TFP growth in the United States has dropped from 1.49% annually during the 1990s, to 1.39% annually from 2001-2010 and to negative during the last decade. The report also cited an analysis from USDA's Economic Research Service noting during this same drop in TFP, public agricultural research funding in the U.S. reached its lowest level since 1970.
In a foreword written for the report, Ted McKinney, CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA), said the primary focus should be how to feed the global population by 2050.
“At [NASDA], we advocate for the power of ‘AND’ which marries the GAP Report’s Total Factor Productivity analysis, the efficiency with which we produce our crops, animals and aquatics, with the additional focus on addressing problems facing the food and agriculture industry,” McKinney wrote. “The power of ‘AND’ allows farmers to sustainably pursue our primary goal — the production of food to address hunger and nutrition needs of communities around the world.”
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The report noted that some tools that have demonstrated the ability to improve farm efficiency and sustainable productivity — improved genetics, precision agriculture, and soil health practices, among them — have not been adopted, especially in low-income countries.
“We already have a lot of proven tools available that would help us close the productivity gap. But there are inequalities in the system, ineffective policies, and significant barriers for farmers to access and use these tools — gender, socioeconomic status, risk, to name a few,” Jessica Agnew, associate director of CALS Global, said in a release. “These barriers also impact farmer livelihoods, food security and environmental health by causing farmers to use substandard and effective tools instead.”
The GAP report offers six policy investment priorities including: investing in public ag R&D and extension services; embracing science and information-based technologies and practices; improving the infrastructure and market access for agricultural inputs and outputs; cultivating partners for sustainable agriculture and improved nutrition; expanding regional and global trade; and reducing post-harvest loss and food waste.
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