Declines in wheat and hay acreage may be the main drivers behind a decade-long drop in total crop acreage, according to an analysis by a University of Illinois economist.
Total crop acreage was relatively stable between 1998 and 2014 before dropping from 356.7 million in 2014 to a low of 337.8 million in 2022. In the analysis, economist Scott Irwin estimates that total acreage will again be 337.8 million this year.
The decline since 2014 was concentrated in the Plains states, and the largest acreage declines were in wheat and hay, he found.
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“It is important to recognize that this means that the wheat and hay acres were literally lost, in that they were not planted to other principal crops. We do not know exactly what happened to the missing wheat and hay acres — perhaps pasture, range, or fallow — but the data indicate they have not been used for the same cropping purposes since 2014,” Irwin writes.
He says the decline in wheat acreage is likely due to persistent drought over the period and lower returns for wheat.
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