Terrain, the economic forecasting firm serving Farm Credit associations, has released the latest in a series of reports covering “The Big Shrink.”
The global population decline will impact all of agriculture, but the California tree nut industry is especially vulnerable, since it exports 70% of its production, explain the economists.
They argue that “now is the time” to strengthen domestic demand, develop new markets around the world and make informed planting decisions.
Almond and walnut orchards last about 30 years, but the population will peak in just 40, with aging populations maxing out earlier, according to the report. Already 75 countries are experiencing decline — particularly China, South Korea and Europe — affecting around half of the markets for pistachios and walnut and a third for almonds and pecans.
SGMA has not slowed new wells or plantings
Contrary to expectations, no evidence indicates SGMA is leading farmers to slow down with drilling new groundwater wells or planting new perennials, according to a new paper from researchers at UC Berkeley and Montana State University.
Farms facing greater pumping restrictions in the years ahead are “just as likely to plant new permanent crops and drill new wells” as their neighbors with less regulation.
The economists acknowledge high scientific uncertainty with this type of measurement. But they write it is also likely “not much movement is happening yet,” since the 2040 deadline for balancing aquifers is “still well into the future.”
Food and Ag Board talks trade
State Food and Ag Board members will hear from trade experts during their upcoming Tuesday meeting.
Former Chief Ag Negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative and Sower Strategies Principal Darci Vetter will give a presentation on ag trade and tariffs.
Other invited speakers include GO-Biz Chief Deputy Director Emily Desai, CDFA Director of International Affairs and Executive Director of the of the State Food and Ag Board Josh Eddy, Wine Institute representative Julie Berge and Almond Board senior trade policy specialist Keith Schneller.
The delegation of the European Union to the United States will also join for a trade perspectives panel.
On that note: Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday California’s 2024 population increase is a sign the world is still seeking Golden State-based opportunities. He assured California efforts to “cut tape, invest in people and seek real results from government” would surmount tariff threats.
House votes to block ESA fish listing, gas car ban
The House narrowly voted Thursday to overturn the federal listing of the longfin smelt as an endangered species, as GOP lawmakers argued that protecting the small fish was jeopardizing critical water supplies for agriculture in the Central Valley.
The House approved, 216-195, a Congressional Review Act resolution that would nullify the Fish and Wildlife Service listing if the measure is also approved by the Senate and signed by President Donald Trump. Three Democrats supported the measure, including Central Valley Reps. Jim Costa and Adam Gray.
With the support of 35 Democrats, the House also voted, 246-164, to nullify the Biden administration’s granting of a federal waiver for a California Air Resources Board rule that would ban the sale of new gas-powered cars and pickups by 2035.
However, that CRA resolution has a more uncertain future. The Government Accountability Office ruled that the CRA process couldn’t be used to overturn the waivers. The Senate parliamentarian affirmed that opinion. Senate Republicans would have to decide to break precedent and overrule the parliamentarian.
Read our full report at Agri-Pulse.com.
Price increases could be in store to deal with tariffs
We’re getting the first clues as to how farm equipment may be affected by President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Major manufacturer AGCO reported Thursday it’s looking at price increases as an option, and CNH Industrial announced an increase in product prices “in the low single digits.”
But, like other companies, it’s also looking to control inventory. In the end, “Like most large industrials, we’re pulling every lever out there … to mitigate the cost given the dynamic situation we're in right now,” said Damon Audia, AGCO senior vice president and CFO.
Both AGCO and CNH Industrial reported significantly lower quarterly sales but saw their stock prices jump because their numbers beat analyst expectations.
Asked by investment analysts to estimate the net tariff impact to AGCO, Audia put it at 30 cents earnings per share. The company’s outlook for the next quarter is a $4 to $4.50 earnings per share.
Tariff critics eye further votes in Congress
Critics of Trump’s new tariffs see opportunities for further votes on the issue after the latest push to overturn the reciprocal tariffs failed in the Senate this week.
“We're going to pull out all the stops,” Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., told Agri-Pulse Thursday. Wyden added that he has “no higher priority” than uprooting Trump’s tariffs, which he argued are taking “a huge toll on the well-being of our people.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters he is eyeing opportunities in the reconciliation bill to force Republicans to defend the duties.
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“You're going to see proposals to undo the tariffs” as part of that process, he said.
Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., believes there may be openings during the dealmaking process to force votes. He told Agri-Pulse that the administration may have to issue new emergency declarations to lower reciprocal duties, which could offer new opportunities to challenge the economic emergencies on the Senate floor. He also argued that Congress should have to approve any new trade deal.
“We are looking at that as sort of a next set of steps, but we haven't made decisions yet,” he said.
Read more at Agri-Pulse.com
Mega-MAHA bill advances in state legislature
A bill that takes aim at seed oils, food chemicals, dyes and additives advanced out of a Louisiana state Senate committee on Wednesday.
The package contains many proposals in line with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vision to “Make America Healthy Again.” SB 14 was introduced into the state Senate in mid-April and cleared the Committee on Health and Welfare in a 4-3 vote.
If passed, the bill requires Louisiana to apply for a federal waiver through the USDA to restrict SNAP purchases of sweetened beverages. It also prohibits a list of food dyes and artificial sweeteners from school meals. Similar bills have appeared in other states.
Uniquely, the Louisiana bill also includes labeling requirements for certain products. If passed, restaurants would have to disclose if they cook with seed oils. Additionally, food packages would have to include a warning that the product “may be harmful to your health” if it includes certain ingredients that are banned in other countries.
“As an industry committed to nutrition, transparency, and public health, the facts on heart-healthy oils like plant-based seed oils remain unchanged: they are safe, beneficial, widely recommended by health experts, and preferred by many consumers,” said Devin Mogler, president and CEO of the National Oilseed Processors Association, in a statement responding to the bill.
Meanwhile: Santa Cruz, California, implemented a 2-cents-per-ounce tax on sugary drinks on Thursday. Voters first approved the tax in 2018, but it was blocked by a state preemption law. A state court struck down the penalty provision of that law in 2023, and Santa Cruz is the first city to act on a local sugary drink tax since then.
The tax applies to sodas, iced teas, sports drinks and any other nonalcoholic beverage with an added caloric sweetener that has 40 calories or more per 12 fluid ounces. There is an exemption for small businesses with less than $500,000 in gross receipts annually.
US dairy signs deal with Indonesia to boost trade
Multiple U.S. dairy groups have inked a deal with the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, known as KADIN, to support cross-border dairy trade.
The National Milk Producers Federation, U.S. Dairy Export Council and KADIN signed a memorandum of understanding Thursday, according to an NMPF statement.
The deal fosters collaboration on putting more dairy into a public meal program, dairy facility registrations, data and information sharing, and joint communication campaigns around dairy nutrition.
CoBank: Mexico to surpass Canada as top US ag export destination
Mexico’s post-pandemic economic recovery and emerging manufacturing sector are likely to propel the country to the top U.S. ag export destination in 2025, according to CoBank.
New research says Mexico is on track to import more U.S. ag products than Canada this year, despite its slowing economy and weaker currency.
Rising feed demand for the country’s growing pork, chicken and beef industries is partly to blame, CoBank says. As is an ongoing drought that continues to subdue crop yields.
“The economic boom has allowed consumers to expand their traditional diet, and U.S. food and agricultural producers are helping meet Mexico’s growing demand for more meat, poultry, dairy, processed foods and feed grains,” the report reads.
Final word
“We are monitoring the situation closely.” — California Attorney General Rob Bonta, who is urging the U.S. Senate to not proceed with resolutions attempting to repeal California’s clean vehicle waiver.
