The Agriculture Department is projecting no improvement in the U.S. agricultural trade outlook for fiscal 2025 as the department lowered its forecast for livestock product exports, offsetting increases for grains and oilseeds.
The quarterly forecast by the Economic Research Service was scheduled to be released last week but was not issued until today and lacks the narrative that usually accompanies it.
The latest forecast projects that the ag trade deficit will grow to $49.5 billion for FY25, which ends Sept. 30, up from the $49 billion deficit projected in February and the $31.8 billion deficit recorded in FY24.
The deficit was $17.2 billion in FY23 after slight surpluses in FY21 and FY22 at $8.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. There were slight deficits in FY19 and FY20.
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USDA left its forecast for FY25 ag exports unchanged at $170.5 billion but raised its estimate for imports by $500 million to $220 billion, leading to the higher projected deficit.
The department raised its forecast for FY25 grain and feed exports to $37.9 billion, up from $37.7 billion in February, and raised the estimate for oilseed shipments to $33.2 billion, up from $32.4 billion.
The estimate for livestock product exports was lowered from $39.7 billion in the February forecast to $38.8 billion.
Coffee and cocoa products accounted for the increase in the value of imports. Coffee imports are forecast at $11.4 billion for FY25, up from $10.5 billion in the February forecast. Imports of cocoa and cocoa products are estimated at $9.6 billion, up from $8.5 billion in the February outlook.
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