Farmers and landowners in the Plains states and upper Midwest stand to benefit the most from one of the biggest expansions of commodity program support in decades, according to economists who have analyzed a key farm provision in President Donald Trump's sweeping new domestic policy law.

Known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the law allows for an estimated $50 billion in increased spending on farm bill commodity programs and authorizes the addition of 30 million new base acres for which farmers can receive program payments, effective for the 2026 crop year.

USDA’s Farm Service Agency has yet to make critical decisions about how to implement the provision, so it’s unclear how much acreage will qualify for additional base acres. But some analyses that have been done so far found that the farmers in the Plains states could get a substantial portion of the benefits. That's in part because of an expansion of corn and soybean plantings over the past two decades, but it's also because farmers can start getting payments on land that wasn't planted to crops that qualify for commodity programs.  

An analysis by economists at The Ohio State University and University of Illinois indicated that just five states – Texas, North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota and Kansas – could account for 38% of the new base.

A separate analysis by University of Missouri economists that estimated how much additional base there would be for three commodities – corn, soybeans and wheat – found that South Dakota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Texas could gain a total of 10.6 million acres out of 25.5 million nationwide, under one method of calculating the affected acreage. 

South Dakota would gain 902,745 acres of new corn base, 632,536 acres of soybean base and 449,461 acres of wheat base, or a total of 1.99 million acres. Wisconsin would gain 1.96 million in the three commodities, followed by North Dakota with 1.88 million. Nebraska, Minnesota and Texas could each gain around 1.6 million.

Wisconsin alone could see a 36% increase in total base acreage, according to the economists. 

The Missouri analysis was funded by USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist.

There are currently about 274 million in base acres eligible for payments under the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs, both of which were enriched under the legislation. ARC makes payments when a county’s revenue falls below the previous five-year Olympic average. PLC makes payments when the average annual price for a commodity falls below the program’s reference price.

Since the 2002 farm bill, commodity payments have been tied to a farmer’s base acres, which were determined by which crops producers planted between 1998 and 2001. It makes no difference which crops a farmer grows in a particular year, because eligibility for program coverage is tied solely to commodity allocation in their base acres. Tying payments to base acres, rather than planted acres, is supposed to ensure that farmers make planting decisions based on market prices rather than on prospects for government payments. 

Existing base acres will remain allocated the same way they are now, even if the farmer is no longer growing the same mix of crops.

The 30 million in additional base acres will be calculated according to planting patterns from 2019 through 2023 and allocated by FSA according to a formula laid out in the budget reconciliation bill.

The formula allows for the enrollment of acreage that was planted to commodities covered by PLC and ARC, including corn, soybeans, wheat, rice and cotton, as well as crops those programs don’t cover. If the eligible acreage exceeds 30 million acres, which is quite possible, according to economists, USDA will have to prorate the eligible base acreage to the extent that the total exceeds 30 million.


07012025_fig1.pngA map of counties that could qualify for additional acres based on their production of commodities eligible for the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs. (University of Illinois graphic) 

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The law gives FSA some discretion in deciding what types of crop qualify as “non-covered” commodities, leading to some variations in estimates. Non-covered commodities covering up to 15% of a farm’s acreage could be eligible for base. Those non-covered commodities aren’t defined in the law except that they can’t be “trees, bushes, vines, grass, or pasture.”

That restriction would still leave room for a number of crops, ranging from alfalfa to sugar beets and industrial hemp, as well as sweet corn, potatoes and other vegetables, according to some economists.

The decision about what crops to include is ultimately up to FSA, but any planted crop arguably could be eligible as a non-covered commodity, said Ohio State economist Carl Zulauf. “How do you exclude it, if it's planted and it's not excluded in the legislation?”

The allowance for non-covered commodities was intended to avoid penalizing farmers who have those crops in rotation with crops such as corn and soybeans, but it also can increase the program payments farmers will receive.

Carl ZulaufCarl Zulauf (Ohio State photo)

Depending on how the law is interpreted, a farmer’s acreage in eligible non-covered commodities could be allocated base for covered commodities according to the ratio for the rest of the farm.

In the Missouri analysis, non-covered commodities would account for at least 1.2 million acres of additional base in Wisconsin and 1.5 million in Minnesota, according to the economists. 

Zulauf said the potential expansion of base acreage to include acreage planted to vegetables and other crops traditionally ineligible for commodity payments represents the largest expansion of those programs since at least the 2002 farm bill.  

And given the inclusion of non-covered commodities, “this really is probably the biggest change since the 1980s when we established base acres,” Zulauf said.

The analysis led by Zulauf and his colleagues at the University of Illinois estimated under one scenario that up to 38.7 million acres could be eligible for new base. Ten states would have at least a million acres eligible, led by Texas with 2.6 million, North Dakota with 2.5 million, Nebraska with 2.3 million and South Dakota with 2 million.

The economists notably insist in their analysis on referring to those acreage calculations as “indicators” – not estimates – because of the uncertainty about how FSA will interpret the new law. “There’s just too much unknown,” Zulauf said. 

The agency hasn’t provided a timeline for writing its eligibility rules.

In a statement to Agri-Pulse, USDA said it “is diligently working to implement the president’s agenda items included in the OBBBA. These policies will result in less taxes on farmers, a strengthened farm safety net, and a more prosperous rural America.” 

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