Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are likely to increase by about a quarter of a percent annually in coming decades, but actual emissions will vary based on production and the pace of new technology adoption, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
In the latest of a series of reports on emissions by sector, CBO says agriculture accounts for 10% of total U.S. GHG emissions, mainly from nitrous oxide and methane.
CBO estimated agricultural emissions at about 650 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024 and projects they will grow to 700 million tons by 2055.
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“That projection incorporates incremental improvements in existing technologies (although not the development of new technologies for reducing emissions) and continued moderate growth in U.S. agricultural production,” the report says.
CBO’s projection of future emissions is roughly in line with the growth rate since 1990.
The report noted that recent innovations in agriculture, including “additives to cattle feed, fertilizers that are effective in smaller quantities, and lower-methane rice varieties” can cut carbon emissions “by limiting nonessential microbial and biological activity. If successfully commercialized and adopted, the new technologies could reduce those emissions substantially below their projected level.”
Crop production accounts for 50% of agricultural emissions, livestock for 42% and fuel combustion for the remaining 8%.
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