Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. says a choppy global trade market is partly to blame for a cut to its 2025 profit forecast, and the company wants more detail on President Donald Trump's soybean purchase agreement with China.

“We really need this clarity on the trade deal,” ADM Chief Executive Officer Juan Luciano told analysts Tuesday.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has lauded the deal struck last week that the Trump administration says includes China buying U.S. soybeans after snubbing the second-largest American crop since last May.  

“Although on the surface it is possible it is positive for ADM and for grain in general, we haven’t seen yet a joint document highlighting the details,” Luciano said. 
 
The uncertainty hits as the U.S. economy enters its 35th day of a government shutdown, tied for the longest ever in the country's history. The partisan impasse over health-care policy has disrupted food assistance for Americans and is slowing down progress in getting emergency aid to crop farmers who are bracing for a third straight year of expected income declines.

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Further, the ag industry is nervously awaiting for the Trump administration to issue final biofuel-blending rules for next year and beyond, a national mandate that has wide-reaching impacts on demand for top crops like soybeans and corn.
 
ADM said while it remains bullish on the long-term prospects for renewable fuel made from commodities such as soybeans and canola, it’s “difficult to predict the timing of when we will see a structural increase in biofuel demand.”
 
The Chicago-based company posted a 21% drop in third-quarter operating profit amid the tough trade and biofuel outlooks. ADM’s crop processing, or crushing, business fell 93% versus the same period a year earlier on tepid demand, due in part to delays in setting clear U.S. biofuel policy.

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The fuel and global commerce woes led ADM to lower its forecast for 2025, with adjusted earnings per share now seen between $3.25 and $3.50, down from about $4 a share projected last quarter.

Shares of ADM fell sharply early before recovering as of midday Tuesday. 

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