The margins on almost every major crop are set to fall this marketing year, the American Farm Bureau Federation is warning, as rising input costs and export uncertainty further squeeze producers and deepen the need for further assistance.  

In an analysis published Monday, the AFBF noted that five of seven major crops are set to see larger average losses this year.

The biggest hits are expected on cotton and rice, which will see losses of $370 and $364 per acre, respectively. The fall in returns could be particularly stark for rice, which reported much more modest losses of $117 per acre last year.

Meanwhile, cotton also saw large negative margins last year, with losses of $368 per acre.

Peanuts, corn and wheat are also set to see their losses grow this marketing year. Only soybeans and sorghum are projected to see smaller losses from the 2024/2025 marketing year – by $61 and $28, respectively.

Part of the improvement for soybeans stems from the unpredictable trade environment that has emerged in the Trump administration, the report’s author, John Newton, notes. Newton is vice president of public policy and chief economist for AFBF.

“[F]armers across the Corn Belt pulled back on soybean acres and instead planted nearly 100 million acres of corn,” Newton writes. With an estimated record corn yield and “a $4 per bushel national average price, the return over total cost is estimated at a loss of over $150 per acre, with total losses nationwide eclipsing $15 billion.”

The deepening negative returns are adding new challenges to accessing capital and are driving farm bankruptcies and loan delinquencies, Newton argues, calling for more economic assistance to carry growers through until additional support arrives in the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years.

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The “One Big Beautiful Bill” signed into law earlier this year included increased funding for commodity programs, crop insurance, foreign market promotion and other programs. But the enhancements won’t materialize until fiscal years 2026 and 2027, the analysis notes.

“Until that support arrives, farmers across the U.S. are left with accumulated losses that are currently estimated in excess of $50 billion over the last three crop years,” Newton writes.

President Donald Trump and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins have indicated that tariff assistance is coming, with many in the administration and on Capitol Hill arguing that this could serve as a bridge payment until farm country is on more stable footing.

The administration moved more than $10 billion to the agriculture secretary’s office early last month to fund an assistance package. But Rollins and other USDA officials have suggested that the scale of the funding package may have changed because of new market conditions.

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Rollins pointed out that since the beginning of October the U.S. has secured new trade agreements and negotiated the resumption of Chinese soybean purchases.

“We’re selling a lot more soybeans than we were though a couple of months ago when we first started talking about that,” Rollins said.

An announcement on tariff assistance could come in the next couple of weeks, Rollins noted.

For AFBF, the announcement can’t come soon enough.

“Economic aid is urgently needed in the countryside,” Newton writes. He points out that many farmers will begin planting in early 2026 and need to have lines of credit in place before then – which means lenders need certainty of what federal support will be available.

“Financial support to offset trade-related losses and provide bridge support until OBBBA enhancements reach farmers will bolster the farm economy and rural America as we navigate these challenging economic conditions,” Newton concludes.

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