Kip Tom, former U.S. ambassador to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, warns that new European sanctions could roil fertilizer markets and create an “unintended crisis” for U.S. ag.
As part of the European Union’s sanctions on Russia, it is phasing in new tariffs on fertilizer. Some states, like Finland and Sweden, have also proposed an outright ban.
“Shocks or policy changes can have significant ripple effects globally,” Tom writes in a forthcoming paper for the America First Policy Institute. U.S. fertilizer price spikes following EU sanctions imposed on Russian fertilizer in 2022, he says, suggest the latest effort will create fresh volatility.
He argues that the sanctions will have little political impact on Russia’s behavior and without paired efforts to boost Europe’s manufacturing capacity, will raise prices for U.S. producers and consumers.
“This will subvert affordability efforts, which are critical ahead of midterm elections later this year,” he warns.
Tom also argues that the European sanctions effort could hinder U.S. plans to stockpile critical minerals, including potash and phosphate. Both were added to the critical minerals list last year.
