Fertilizer distributors in some areas are not delivering product amid market uncertainty in the Middle East, several analysts and producers said Monday, and many warn that the current supply crunch could have lasting impacts on U.S. production and prices.
“I called my fertilizer distributor to get a price and some fertilizer delivered, and he said, ‘I'm sorry, we will not price or deliver fertilizer until we see how this shakes out,’” Harry Ott, president of the South Carolina Farm Bureau, told reporters during a press call Monday.
Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran last week, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively paralyzed amid security threats and insurers pausing or reducing coverage for vessels in the Gulf.
The conflict has roiled nitrogen fertilizer markets, in particular. Qatar, Egypt, Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia are all major urea exporters, according to data from StoneX, and the transportation challenges in the Middle East have sent fertilizer prices soaring.
Doug Wright, a fertilizer consultant in Kansas, told Agri-Pulse that he spoke with a urea seller on Monday morning who is only delivering to clients that had pre-pay contracts.
The situation is equally bleak for other nitrogen fertilizers, Wright said. He told Agri-Pulse he had also spoken to three Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) manufacturers on Monday who reported full order books through May.
“We're real concerned about the position that we're in right now,” American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall told reporters.
Typically, March and April are the busiest months for U.S. fertilizer imports, according to USDA data. In 2025, more than a third of all solid urea imports arrived during the two months, for example.
“We're being told that many of our farmers that haven't pre-ordered their fertilizer and paid for it may not even obtain the fertilizer that they're going to need during the season or for spring planting,” Duvall added.
The farm economy was already facing difficult economic conditions heading into this year’s planting season. Accordingly, many producers were not in a position to pre-order and pay for their fertilizer, said John Newton, AFBF’s vice president of public policy and economic analysis.
“The fertilizer is not exactly logistically where it needs to be around the country for application because a lot of those pre-purchase orders did not come in,” Newton told reporters. “That's another logistical challenge that we face.”
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In analysis posted Monday, StoneX Vice President for Fertilizer Josh Linville called the current situation “a nightmare scenario.”
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the busiest channels for urea trade in the world, moving around half of the total supply. Prices in New Orleans are already up 77% from December, Linville said.
“Every single day that this continues to go on, the worse it’s going to get,” he added.
The supply crunch is also spurring fears that distributors and suppliers could capitalize on the uncertainty to fatten their bottom lines at producers’ expense.
Ott complained that retail prices have risen alongside wholesale prices since the conflict began last Saturday. Many distributors, he argued, will have placed their own orders and filled their warehouses before prices jumped, and warned that suppliers should not be taking the opportunity to squeeze more money out of already embattled producers.
“We understand that the replacement cost to refill that warehouse is going to be higher because of the supply and demand, but we really don't understand why we are being charged a $150 to $200 premium for what they already had purchased in their warehouse,” Ott said.
“Try not to gouge us at this point in time and make extra money off of the fertilizer that you've already purchased ahead of time,” he pleaded.
If farmers cannot get the fertilizer they need, yields could fall, driving food prices higher, Newton noted. The supply crunch is also prompting some farmers to revisit their planting plans.
Corn and wheat require more nitrogen application than soybeans. Newton said that he had heard anecdotes of farmers pivoting to soybeans in light of the latest fertilizer market turmoil.
AFBF wrote to President Donald Trump on Monday urging him to take action to ease the pressure on U.S. fertilizer supply chains. Duvall pressed the president to use the U.S. Navy to provide safe passage to fertilizer shipments in the region, use financing tools to address insurance or financing challenges for fertilizer carriers, and suspend countervailing duties on fertilizers, among other recommendations.
While these measures would ease market pressures and would help reduce the instability and uncertainty in U.S. fertilizer markets, Wright said that he is concerned about the long-term fallout of the conflict.
So far, no reports have emerged that fertilizer facilities have been hit by U.S. or Israeli airstrikes. But international reports have noted that Israel is now targeting Iranian energy facilities. Ukrainian forces also targeted Russian fertilizer production facilities in part, because ammonium nitrate and nitric acid – which go into fertilizer – can also be used to make explosives.
If Israel decided to target fertilizer facilities in Iran, it could dent global supplies for years to come, Wright argued.
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