China is expanding its economic relationship with Africa, increasing both trade and market access across the continent, according to a University of Illinois analysis.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013, initially focused on infrastructure but is increasingly tied to broader trade expansion, wrote economist Gerald Mashange. Beginning May 1, China plans to extend zero-tariff access to all 53 African countries with diplomatic relations with Beijing.
China has been Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009. Total China-Africa trade rose from $198.5 billion in 2012 to $295.6 billion in 2024, compared with $104.9 billion in U.S.-Africa trade.
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Meanwhile, U.S. trade policy with Africa is at a turning point, the analysis says. The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which allows certain African goods to enter the United States duty-free, was renewed only through the end of 2026. At the same time, broader U.S. engagement has declined sharply, with more than 80 percent of USAID-funded programs canceled in early 2025.
Africa’s population and incomes are expected to rise in the coming decades, increasing demand for grains, protein, and processed foods.
“Whether the United States retains a meaningful economic presence on the continent will depend in part on the policy choices it makes now, while China is actively working to deepen its own,” Mashange wrote.
