President Donald Trump says he will stop strikes on Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz.
In a Truth Social post Tuesday evening, Trump said Iran had offered a 10-point proposal that served as a “workable basis on which to negotiate” a lasting peace agreement. Based on conversations with Pakistani mediaries, the president said he would “hold off the destructive force” in what he called a “double sided CEASEFIRE!”
Iran’s foreign minister said in a statement that the government had agreed to a ceasefire and that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible “via coordinating with Iran’s Armed Forces.”
But analysts told Agri-Pulse before the announcement that the price impacts of the conflict could linger for several months.
Shipping insurers, for example, price products on the basis of risks, not diplomatic statements, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Chief Economist Máximo Torero said in an email last week.
It may take several weeks or months to determine if those risks have diminished.
"This logistics bottleneck has no viable workaround in the short term,” he concluded.
It could take just as long to clear backlogged fertilizer deliveries and resume normal delivery times, Michigan State University’s David Ortega said.
Take note: Many farmers have already adjusted planting decisions for the 2026 crop.
Half of U.S. corn farmers do not plan on applying all of their planned fertilizer, with most citing price concerns as the main reason, according to new findings from the National Corn Growers Association.
Some 20% of respondents said they planned to reduce corn acres as a result of the Middle East conflict.
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Growers are already looking at 2027 with concern. Almost 60% of farmers said they are more concerned about fertilizer availability next year.
“Fertilizer prices were high even before the war in Iran began,” NCGA President Jed Bower said in a statement. “Added market stress due to the Strait of Hormuz closure has only intensified an already difficult situation, particularly as we look towards 2027.”
Tariff refund case hits speed bump
Lawyers for plaintiffs in a case serving as a vehicle for judges to weigh tariff refunds have asked to dismiss the case in a move that could delay potential refunds.
Atmus Filtration had sued the administration for tariff refunds, prompting a judge to issue an order last month directing Customs and Border Protection to halt processing of illegal emergency tariffs.
In a filing this week, a lawyer for Atmus Filtration asked the Court of International Trade to dismiss the case. The lawyer declined to answer a question from Agri-Pulse on why the plaintiffs filed for a dismissal.
“You can almost hear the collective exhale” from customs officials, Pete Mento, a director of trade advisory services for Baker Tilly, said in a social media post.
“The refunds aren’t going away,” he added, and there are many other cases that could serve as a lead case for the decision. But he noted that if importers “were hoping for a smooth ride, this ain’t it.”
Greer says U.S. looking for ‘stable’ China relations right now
The administration’s top trade official says the U.S. wants to preserve stability in its China relations ahead of a forthcoming meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
“The alternative, I don't think, is one that people want to deal with right now,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Tuesday. “What we are not looking for is massive confrontation or anything like that.”
Most Chinese imports face an additional 10% global tariff right now, which is lower than the 20% rate applied before the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs. But in recent weeks, both Beijing and Washington have unveiled new trade probes that could be used to justify future tariff hikes.
“At the same time, we have to protect our national security. We have to protect our economic security,” Greer added.
Take note: Greer also reiterated that one potential outcome from the May leaders’ meeting could be the establishment of a “board of trade” to manage trade relations between the two economies. The panel would be “government-to-government” and would try to determine which “non-sensitive” goods should be part of bilateral trade flows.
Digester opponents praise USDA’s extended pause on biodigester loans
The Agriculture Department is continuing a pause on loan note guarantee awards for biodigester and controlled environment agriculture projects in Rural Development programs.
Rural Business-Cooperative Service Administrator J.R. Claeys said last week the agency would continue its halt on biodigester and controlled environment agriculture loan awards in agency programs through December. His memo says the pause will allow the agency to develop “sector-specific underwriting guidance,” and assess “lender eligibility, expertise, and oversight requirements.”
"The choice is clear: We can continue approving projects we have reason to believe will fail, or we can preserve capital for job-creating rural projects we have strong confidence will succeed,” Claeys said in the memo.
Take note: The initial pause was put in place Jan. 14, the same day more than 30 environmental groups petitioned USDA to stop funding digesters under REAP. A press release from three of those groups Tuesday applauded the extension. They called digesters "extremely expensive projects that primarily benefit large-scale industrial livestock operations and fail to deliver meaningful climate or community benefits.”
USDA sends low-carbon biofuel feedstock plan to White House
The Trump administration is following up on a Biden-era proposal aimed at financially rewarding farmers for producing low-carbon crops used to make biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel.
USDA has sent the guidelines to the White House budget office for review, a sign they could be finalized over the next few weeks.
Just days before President Donald Trump was sworn into office last year, USDA issued a “climate-smart” proposal related to biofuel production. The agency at the time recommended it be folded into the new clean fuel tax credit known as 45Z.
The absence of regenerative ag in the Treasury Department’s proposed 45Z regulations has drawn some concern, though Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden told Agri-Pulse in February that the lack of regen ag was merely a technical matter and not at all an oversight.
Final word
"The political environment for House Republicans continues to look bleak. Even before President Donald Trump’s approval rating reached a nadir amid spiking gas prices and an unpopular war with Iran, special and off-year elections showed Democrats with a significant enthusiasm advantage.” – Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey, who also said five House races have shifted in favor of Democrats.
Kim Chipman, Oliver Ward and Noah Wicks contributed to today’s Daybreak.
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