A fourth-generation farmer from western North Carolina is stoking the hopes of Democrats seeking to regain majority control of Congress next year. 

The Blue Ridge Mountain district bordering Tennessee, Georgia and South Carolina is known for its conservative Republican politicians, like former Reps. Mark Meadows and Madison Cawthorn. Yet Democrat Jamie Ager’s campaign to unseat two-term GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards has Democrats wondering if he might be able to break the GOP’s grip.

The potentially tight race is also seen as a national political yardstick in the high-stakes midterm elections in November.

“North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District could be a key barometer in determining how big of a Democratic wave occurs in 2026,” Western Carolina University Professor Christopher Cooper writes in Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which has a “Leans Republican” rating on the House race.

Voters in the North Carolina district haven’t elected a Democrat for the U.S. House of Representatives since former Rep. Heath Shuler won a third term in 2010. The former professional football player chose not to run two years later, and Meadows ultimately won the race for the open seat. The Appalachian district was heavily redrawn in 2011 in favor of Republicans. 

In 2019, a state panel of judges ordered the district to be redrawn again, a move that left it a bit less red. The area includes the heavily left-leaning Buncombe County and the city of Asheville. Despite being the region's largest county, Buncombe only made up 36% of the vote in the last election, according to Cooper. 

“Winning Buncombe and its liberal enclave of Asheville is not enough to win an election,” he said.

Enter Jamie Ager. 

The founder of a sustainable meat company is the grandson of former U.S. Rep. Jamie Clarke, a dairy and apple farmer who represented the same district in the 1980s and early 1990s. Ager’s brother, Eric, is a Democratic state lawmaker.

Edwards sits on the influential House Appropriations and Budget committees. He also belongs to many caucuses, including one focused on specialty crops. Edwards also is facing a House Ethics Committee investigation on harassment and hostile-work environment allegations, claims the congressman has strongly rejected.

“It’s too early to know how all of this will play out, but it clearly has not made the Democrats any less enthusiastic that they can achieve their stretch goal in NC-11,” Cooper said. 

Democrats don’t even need to win the district to have a successful midterm and take over the House, Cooper noted. “But if they are competitive there, or if Ager actually flips the seat, it will likely mean that the national environment has moved well beyond an ordinary midterm and into wave territory.”

Sabato's Crystal Ball favors Democrats to flip the House in November.

Separately, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted its rating on the race between Ager and Edwards from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” 

“Polling from both parties shows Edwards and Jamie Ager, a livestock farmer recruited by Blue Dog Democrats, are neck-and-neck,” Cook analyst Erin Covey said. “Ager, though himself a first-time candidate, is the grandson of a former congressman and the brother of a state legislator.”

Cook on Thursday changed its rating on the following U.S. House races:

  • GOP Rep. Brad Finstad’s race in Minnesota District 1 from “Solid R” to “Likely R”
  • GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga’s race in Michigan District 4 from “Likely R” to “Lean R”
  • Open race in Iowa District 2 from “Likely R” to “Lean R”
  • GOP Rep. Max Miller’s race in Ohio District 7 from “Solid R” to “Likely R”
  • Open race in South Carolina’s District 1 from “Solid R” to “Likely R”
  • Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures’ race in Alabama District 2 from “Solid R” to “Likely R”  

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