Almost a third of all U.S. agricultural exports are on the line as the first joint review of the North American trade deal starts later this week. In Congress, debate over foreign farm workers begins anew with the unveiling of a plan to revamp ag labor law. 

The U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, accounting for about $1.5 trillion worth of overall goods and services trade among the three nations, is under formal reassessment for the first time as of July 1. The trilateral review will determine whether the pact forged six years ago under President Donald Trump is renewed for a 16-year term. 

On the domestic front, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson says he intends to formally propose long-planned farm labor legislation on Tuesday. 

The future of ag product shipments to the two biggest U.S. trading partners, Mexico and Canada, and the prospects of easing farm labor shortages are top of mind as producers and policymakers try to ensure America remains strongly positioned in the global agriculture economy. The focus on ag trade and labor comes as the Department of Agriculture is set to release closely watched crop acreage projections. 

“Tuesday's report provides the first implied production estimate for the 2026 crop – a number the market will spend the rest of the growing season debating,” No Bull Ag analyst Susan Stroud said in a note to clients on Saturday.

Geopolitically, a U.S.-Iran ceasefire in the Middle East continued to be tested this weekend as the countries exchanged strikes.  

USMCA review 

Back home, it’s all eyes on the USMCA. 

The Agricultural Coalition for USMCA says since the pact took force in 2020, the value of U.S. ag exports to Mexico and Canada has swelled $20 billion to a total of $60 billion as of 2024, along with $1.2 billion in seafood product shipments. Though as Trump publicly questions renewing the deal, questions are swirling on if industries should brace for years of negotiations or an end of the accord altogether. 

It would be “catastrophic” not to preserve USMCA, American Soybean Association executive committee member Jamie Beyer, a Minnesota farmer, told the House Agriculture Committee this month.

Strategists for JPMorgan Chase’s wealth management division say risk of the deal’s termination is “lower than it appears.”

“If no agreement is reached this year, the USMCA does not lapse but shifts to annual reviews for the remainder of its 16-year term, continuing through its scheduled expiry in 2036, making the more likely outcome not a collapse, but continued negotiation within the existing framework,” according to the J.P. Morgan Private Bank analysis. 

Farm labor bill 

The proposed measure from House Ag Chairman Thompson follows a string of failed prior attempts in both the House and Senate to get a bill through Congress. Thompson hopes to avoid that fate by building strong bipartisan support and underpinning the measure with recommendations from a committee working group.

The bill will aim to revamp the H-2A program, which helps employers bring foreign workers to the U.S. for temporary or seasonal agricultural jobs. This includes a single portal for filing applications; streamlining recruiting and hiring; allowing employers to apply for staggered work entry; and speeding up review of delayed worker applications, according to draft text of the upcoming measure. 

Time crunch

The U.S. House reconvenes Monday for a shortened work week due to observance of the Fourth of July federal holiday, which this year marks America’s semiquincentennial, or the 250th anniversary of the country’s founding. 

A bipartisan bill to reauthorize and strengthen a program that helps rural and municipal power utilities fight cybersecurity threats to the energy grid is expected to get a full House vote as soon as Monday evening.

The Senate is in recess until July 13. Once back, the Agriculture Committee will try to complete a markup of a farm bill before a five-week adjournment starting around Aug. 7. 

Congress faces a heavy to-do list next month before a scheduled summer break. Along with the farm bill and appropriations for next fiscal year, Trump is asking for a nearly $90 billion supplemental funding package for the military and other priorities, including $11 billion in additional aid for farmers. He also wants the legislation to include pro-ethanol legislation sought by grain and biofuel producers, known as E-15.

Meanwhile, the Senate also is under pressure from the White House to pass the “SAVE Act,” which would require voters to prove U.S. citizenship through a document like a birth certificate for federal elections. Trump last week declined to sign bipartisan housing legislation until the election law is fully passed and sent to his desk. 

Once back from summer break, Congress is only on Capitol Hill a few weeks before adjourning again for nearly all of October and early November to give lawmakers time to focus on midterm congressional elections set for Nov. 3. 

Farm aid, 45Z 

Lawmakers have been talking all year about passing additional financial assistance to farmers, on top of the $12 billion announced by the Trump administration late last year.  Financially strained producers are waiting for updated federal safety-net programs to kick in starting in October. Ag groups say aid is needed as soon as possible so farmers are positioned to talk with lenders about investments needed for next season. 

Beyond Capitol Hill, the timing of the Treasury Department’s final rules for the Clean Fuel Production Credit, better known as 45Z, is under close watch by biofuel and ag groups. The USDA issued rules last week on biofuel feedstocks that are geared toward being folded into 45Z so farmers can best monetize the credit through regenerative ag practices.

Now, the Treasury and Energy departments need to finish the full, final 45Z rules, Clean Fuels Association America CEO Donnell Rehagen told Agri-Pulse on Friday.

“We would like to see that sooner rather than later,” he said.

Hear more from Rehagen and crop-based biofuels in this week’s Agri-Pulse Open Mic. 

Here is a list of agriculture or rural-related events scheduled for this week in Washington and elsewhere (all times EST):

Monday, June 29

MAHA Monday at the Great American State Fair. 

4 p.m. – USDA’s weekly crop progress report.

Tuesday, June 30

Colorado primaries.

10 a.m. – The House Energy and Commerce’s communications and technology subcommittee holds a hearing on oversight of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, 2123 Rayburn. 

Noon – USDA issues acreage estimates; quarterly grain and rice stocks reports. 

2 p.m. – USDA releases an annual report on Agricultural Trade Multipliers.

Wednesday, July 1 

10 a.m. – The House Science, Space, and Technology Committee holds a hearing, Weathering the Solar Storm: Advancing America’s Space Weather Capabilities, 2318 Rayburn.  

For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.