WASHINGTON, May 11, 2016 - Farmers
eager to see Congress make it easier for them to secure foreign workers have
been pinning their hopes on lawmakers finally taking up immigration reform in
2017. With Donald Trump now the presumptive GOP nominee, some supporters of
immigration reform believe the chances for that happening are improving – but
only if Trump loses the general election.
The theory
is that a Democratic landslide in November would discredit immigration reform
opponents and clear the way for House Speaker Paul Ryan to finally put a
comprehensive bill on the House floor.
However, there are several problems
with that theory. For one, congressional Republicans may be even more hesitant
than ever next year to fall in line behind Ryan on this issue. After all,
opposition to immigration has been one of the twin pillars of Trump’s campaign,
along with criticism of trade agreements.
And one of the key GOP leaders of the
2013 reform effort, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, never got traction in the
presidential campaign, in part because of the relentless criticism he received
for his role in the so-called Gang of Eight that negotiated the Senate
immigration bill. “That cost him so much for him to do that. I don’t
know if we can get to that again,” acknowledged Frank Gasperini, executive vice
president and CEO of the National Council of Agricultural Employers.
Another challenge for Ryan: In his
race for speaker, he promised some conservative hardliners that he wouldn’t move
an immigration bill without the support of a majority of the GOP caucus.
Despite those obstacles, congressional
Republicans may still be persuaded to vote for an immigration bill should Trump
lose the election, says Tom Jawetz, vice president of immigration policy at the
Center
for American Progress (CAP), a think tank closely aligned with
the Obama administration.
His thinking is that the election will
test whether Republicans can win a national election by driving up white
turnout enough to overcome opposition from minorities. If the strategy fails, he says, Republicans may be more amenable to
passing a bill that benefits illegal immigrants.
“The House has been the biggest
problem perennially and will continue to be the biggest challenge in 2017,”
said Jawetz. “The outcome of the election has the potential to … shape the
conversation that takes place not just nationally and in the Senate but once
more in the House.”
There’s also
a wild card potentially at play – the Supreme Court ruling expected this summer
on President Obama’s immigration policy.
At stake is an executive order, known by the acronym, DAPA that would allow
millions of adult immigrants to legally work in the United States even if they
came in illegally. A ruling that clears the way for DAPA could fire up
immigration opponents. A 4-4 tie, which would keep DAPA on hold, or a ruling
against the president could help Hillary Clinton get Latino supporters to the
polls.
According to
a CAP study, there are 1.6 million voting-age U.S. citizens who live with
DAPA-eligible immigrants. While many of those voters are in
Texas and California, which are unlikely to be in play in November, there are
enough in Florida to help Hillary Clinton carry that state, Jawetz says. Obama
defeated Mitt Romney in Florida four years ago by only 74,000 votes. According
to the study, there are about 60,000 DAPA-affected voters in Florida.
A Trump loss
in November is no foregone conclusion despite his high negatives. A Quinnipiac
University poll released
Tuesday found that Trump was running close with Clinton not only in Florida but
also in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states Trump has targeted with his
anti-trade message. The race in Florida and Pennsylvania is a virtual tie, with
Clinton up by 1 point. Trump leads Ohio by 4 points, according to the poll.
The challenge for agriculture is that
under any likely outcome in November, passing immigration legislation that
increases the flow of foreign farmworkers will require compromise on all sides
on a range of immigration issues. Conservatives will insist on border security
and mandatory E-Verify, a system for companies to instantly check a potential
employee’s status. Democrats want a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants
and protections for farmworkers.
Gasperini still holds out hope for
legislation next year despite the attacks on immigration during the GOP
campaign. “We’re preparing like crazy on the assumption that we have a run at
it again next year,” he said.
One scenario that could produce a
compromise: “If there’s a Democratic
Senate and a Democratic president, the House might find it expedient, even if
they are still a majority Republican, to give on some issues like this to get
them off the table,” Gasperini said. Republicans may “see it as an
opportunity to clean house and blame the Democrats.”
But Gasperini acknowledges that some
farmers are beginning to lose hope in congressional action. “They’re starting
to think they’re not going to see this in their careers now,” he said.
There is
good news for growers on their most pressing problem this spring – a backlog in
processing applications for H-2A visas, which allow foreign workers into the
U.S. for temporary agricultural work. The
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and the State Department have
announced steps to streamline the process. USCIS today is launching a new
electronic process that will allow the agency to send approval information for
H-2A petitions to State by the end of the next business day. That action will
in turn allow consular offices to go ahead with processing visa applications.
Tom Nassif, president and CEO of
Western Growers Association, said the announcement was “welcome news” for
growers who depend on the program for seasonal labor.
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