WASHINGTON, Feb. 9, 2017 –USDA’s latest global grain outlook showed little change in the international grain supplies as U.S. producers gear up for the 2017 planting season.

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for February was highlighted by in increase in U.S. wheat exports, a jump in domestic corn use, and steady soybean supply and use figures. The report didn’t address the upcoming U.S. planting season for major crops like corn and soybeans and had a heavy focus on ramifications of international grain movement.

  • Wheat: Domestic wheat exports for the 2016-2017 crop year are projected about 50 million bushels higher to just over 1 billion bushels. That, coupled with decreased food use of the product, puts ending stocks at 1.139 billion bushels, 47 million bushels lower than the month-ago estimate. Still, the projected ending stocks would be the largest since the late 1980s.

    A potential positive for U.S. producers hoping for demand for their product could be decreases in projected global wheat on hand. USDA pegged international supplies 4.2 million metric tons lower than the January estimate, largely due to “sharp reductions in the India and Kazakhstan crops.”
  • Corn use is projected higher, primarily driven by increased use in ethanol. Non-ethanol usage is projected 10 million bushels higher, and corn used in ethanol was raised 25 million bushels to 5.35 billion bushels. That information was used to narrow – but not necessarily raise or lower – the projected season-average corn price by 10 cents on both ends of the range. Producers can be expected to receive a price ranging from $3.20 to $3.60 a bushel.

    USDA pegs global coarse grain production – corn and sorghum – about 1.4 million tons higher than last month’s estimate. That increase takes global production to 1.329 million metric tons.
  • Soybean ending stocks were left unchanged at 420 million bushels, but exports received a 114 million bushel boost to 2.05 billion bushels. USDA pointed out that January export commitments were higher than a year ago, but international competition – particular from South America – is also on the rise.
  • USDA also reduced total red meat and poultry production for 2017, raised the year’s milk production forecast, lowered rice exports while raising ending stocks, and raised cotton exports while lowering ending stocks.

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