Agricultural water deliveries could decrease by about 5% in California's Central Valley and by 15% in dry years, under a long-term plan outlined in an Environmental Impact Statement issued by the Bureau of Reclamation Friday.
At the same time, deliveries would increase up to 10% for municipal and industrial purposes, according to tables in the EIS.
The bureau identified what it calls the "multi-agency consensus" as its preferred alternative in the EIS, which was prepared to coordinate the operations of the federal Central Valley Project with the State Water Project.
"This document establishes a solid, balanced and credible basis for the next version of the Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project,” California-Great Basin Regional Director Karl Stock said in a statement. “It is the product of robust consultation and outreach that will allow us to meet our water supply and environmental objectives.”
BOR's EIS analyzes five alternative operational plans for their impacts on water quality, surface water supply, groundwater, wildlife, regional economics and power.
The agency's preferred alternative incorporates the proposed Delta criteria from the California Department of Water Resources' Incidental Take Permit for the Delta facilities of the SWP. It includes actions crafted among the Department of Water Resources, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, National Marine Fisheries Service and the Fish and Wildlife Service to coordinate CVP's operational plan with the California Endangered Species Act requirements for the SWP.
The Land Use and Agricultural Resources section says the alternative plans “could change the extent of irrigated acreage and total production value over the long-term average condition and in dry and critical dry years” compared with the current plan, which tracks changes through 2040. A separate chapter is dedicated to groundwater, though EIS analysis did not directly simulate limitations to groundwater levels and pumping resulting from the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA).
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In public comments submitted in September, California Farm Bureau Senior Policy Advisor Alexandra Biering wrote the EIS's analyses of regional economics, agriculture and land use "underestimate or obscure the likely impacts to agricultural production and effects for communities in areas served by the CVP and SWP and especially in parts of the San Joaquin Valley." She added that the preferred alternative — Alternative 2 — could speed up farm consolidation due to water supply uncertainty.
Biering also wrote that the analysis of groundwater resources doesn't reflect "the current and near-term reality when it comes to groundwater management, especially in the San Joaquin Valley," inquiring why the effects of the SGMA were not included in the action alternatives.
The EIS "needs a more complete and SGMA-inclusive assessment of the alternatives and their likelihood to accelerate and expand land use transitions and create other regional impacts," Biering wrote.
"While it is true that under SGMA less groundwater is anticipated to be available for beneficial uses than under current circumstances, effects of implementing SGMA are not effects of the alternatives," Reclamation wrote in response.
Reclamation ended up including Biering's reference to USDA data showing long-term individual farm decline in the final version.
In September, Rep.David Valadao, R-Calif., and other congressional leaders wrote to the agency with concerns that the draft EIS prioritized environmental goals over municipal and agricultural needs, urging the agency to reconsider the proposed operation changes to "optimize water deliveries."
Reclamation said its preferred alternative also provides a new framework for Shasta Reservoir operations to benefit Chinook salmon; revises operational criteria for Delta exports – which partially supply water to farms – and supports implementation of the Healthy Rivers and Landscapes Program.
