U.S. egg imports jumped in February just as wholesale prices started falling and Mexico and Turkey began scaling their U.S. exports, according to the latest Commerce Department data. But while imports are contributing to falling prices, they may not be a major driver, analysts say.
U.S. egg imports increased nearly sixfold between January and February of this year, with Turkey ramping up U.S. exports and Mexico sending eggs to the U.S. for the first time since 2023.
Wholesale prices for white, large shell eggs have been falling since the middle of February when they topped $8 per dozen. As domestic egg supplies have increased, prices plummeted to around $3 a dozen at the end of March – although they ticked up slightly in the first week of April, according to the Agriculture Department.
The Trump administration’s plan to reduce U.S. egg prices, which Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins unveiled in February, included temporarily increasing U.S. imports alongside bolstering biosecurity measures and examining a path forward on a vaccine. The administration, however, has since deemphasized the role of vaccines.
In recent weeks, President Donald Trump and Rollins have lined up to take credit for falling egg prices, arguing they demonstrate the strategy’s early success.
“When I took it over, eggs were through the roof, and now eggs are down,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One last month.
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But Vincent Smith, director of agricultural policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, told Agri-Pulse that while imports likely contributed to falling egg prices, they may not have been a decisive factor.
“Imports are such a small fraction of the total U.S. egg supply,” Smith argued, that any price benefits have been dwarfed by the expansion in domestic egg production following the avian flu outbreak.
“It doesn't hurt that there's been an increase in imports,” Smith said, but he added that “the major driving force has been the beginnings of a significant reconstruction of domestic supplies.”
At a recent AEI event, North Carolina State University economist Barry Goodwin pointed out that more than 168 million U.S. birds have been culled since 2022, and 30 million egg layers lost from January to March 2025.
Egg production in the first months of 2025 has, however, rebounded to 2023/2024 levels, Goodwin said. Lay rates have increased significantly, and supply is closer to keeping pace with demand.
"We have realized some rather significant production gains in terms of output per hen," Goodwin said during the event.
Goodwin stressed, however, that the market remains “volatile,” and prices could spike again if warming weather and migrating birds bring a spate of new U.S. avian flu cases.
The flip side, Smith said, is that with imports only making a minor contribution to falling prices, new tariffs on Turkey shouldn’t lead to significant price spikes. Trump unveiled an across-the-board tariff of 10% on U.S. imports last week – including those from Turkey – that went into effect on Saturday.
The tariffs, Smith said, are “unlikely to have much effect.”
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