Government farm payments have served to increase ag production costs, including cropland values, even as producers have made less on their crops, according to an analysis by economists and farm policy experts at The Ohio State University and the University of Illinois.

Row crop producers lost a net $32 billion in private market returns from 2014 to 2023, while receiving federal safety net payments totaling $120 billion, according to the analysis. Meanwhile, cropland prices increased from an average of $3,580 in 2012-13 to $5,445 in 2023-24. Land rents went from $131 to $158 an acre.

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Providing farmers with additional payments is “unlikely to relieve the crop cost-price squeeze but instead raise the cost of producing crops. In short, U.S. crop agriculture confronts a government payment trap,” the authors say.

“Unwinding this trap will unfortunately come with pain, such as higher financial stress and bankruptcies, unless higher prices or yields increase private market returns or interest rates decline."

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