The United States and Brazil — the world’s two largest country‑level fertilizer importers — “should step up efforts to expand domestic fertilizer production” to reduce exposure to global shocks, Purdue University economists say in a new assessment of fertilizer dependence.
“This is a long-term challenge, but it is becoming increasingly necessary for both countries to remain competitive in the global grain market,” write Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier.
The report notes that as much as 30% of global fertilizer shipments move through the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns about agricultural vulnerability are compounded by the limited progress both countries have made on the “fertilizer independence” strategies announced in 2022. Despite lessons from the Russia‑Ukraine war, which sent fertilizer prices to record highs, neither nation has meaningfully reduced its reliance on imports.
Brazil relies on imports for 95% of its nitrogen and 96% of its potash, the report notes. In 2025, imports accounted for 88% of Brazil’s total fertilizer consumption. And the United States, while better positioned with a stronger domestic industry, is becoming more import‑reliant. Phosphate import dependence nearly doubled between 2021 and 2025, and U.S. nitrogen reliance on Canada rose from 30% to 49% over the same period. In 2025, the U.S. imported 95% of its potash, up from 93% in 2021.
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“Brazil remains in a riskier position because import dependence is high across all three primary macronutrients [nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium], and domestic production has not kept pace with rising record demand,” the economists state. “Although the United States has a more developed domestic fertilizer industry, it also relies on external sources for key inputs, especially potash. This dependence, although at different levels, leaves crop production in both countries exposed to geopolitical shocks, higher input costs, and tighter farm margins.”
Fertilizer prices are rising again without the commodity‑price cushion that softened the blow in 2022, they write. Brazil is more severely affected in the short term as its soybean fertilizer purchasing window is open now, exposing farmers to higher costs immediately.
With geopolitical risks mounting and margins tightening, the economists argue policymakers face growing pressure to treat fertilizer security as a long‑term strategic priority rather than a cyclical market concern.
