Acreage reports that producers file with the USDA’s Farm Service Agency back up the department’s big corn acreage forecast and suggest that it may even be underestimated, according to economists at the land grant universities of Missouri and Illinois.
Farmers file the reports with FSA in order to participate in farm bill programs.
“Our analysis suggests that the WASDE acreage number is if anything a conservative estimate of US corn acreage. More corn acres imply lower prices. Even if USDA’s corn yield forecast is overly optimistic as many market watchers have suggested, higher acreage means abundant corn supply and low prices for the upcoming marketing year,” the economists write.
Using FSA’s reported 96.5 million acres of corn, the economists estimate total planted corn acreage this year at 98.1 million acres. The estimate was based on the ratio of the FSA acreage report to the final planting numbers for 2024.
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The August Crop Production report released by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates farmers planted 97.3 million acres of corn this year, up 7% from last year.
If the economists are right that USDA may be underestimating this year’s corn crop, the impact on production and prices could be even starker. Planting 98.1 million acres would mean nearly 16.9 billion bushels of corn, based on USDA’s estimated average 188.8 bushels per acre yield.
The estimates in USDA's August report pushed market prices down and fueled new calls in the corn industry to increase ethanol usage. The report estimated corn production this year at a record 16.7 billion bushels, a 13% increase from 2024.
Because NASS incorporated the FSA data into its August report, the acreage estimate "is likely pretty realistic, or close to where the final [number] will end up, at least for the planted acres," Krista Swanson, chief economist for the National Corn Growers Association, told reporters.
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