Cattle numbers in feedlots are down this year, but the number is still high enough to suggest that producers are selling off heifers rather than using them to rebuild herds, two economists say.
USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report shows 10.9 million head on feed as of Aug. 1, a drop of 2% from the same date last year. Placements in feedlots during July fell 6% below the same month in 2024 to 1.6 million. Marketings of fed cattle last month also dropped 6%, to 1.75 million head.
Texas saw a drop from 2.74 million on feed in August 2024 to 2.49 million this year.
Writing in Southern Ag Today, economists David Anderson of Texas A&M University and Josh Maples of Mississippi State University noted placements are down 643,000 through July, while Mexican feeder cattle imports are down by 628,000 this year from 2024.
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“Almost all the decline in placements this year can be attributed to the border closure. It is a bit surprising that domestic placements are not lower, given the smaller calf crops,” Anderson said.
He said that high calf prices may be “encouraging producers to sell now, pulling feeder cattle placements ahead. It may also be that some producers are continuing to sell heifers. The decision between selling now at record prices or counting on future returns may still favor selling now for some producers.”
USDA is estimating that retail beef prices will be 9.9% higher this year than in 2024.
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