A new paper from University of California and North Dakota State University economists finds California agriculture suffered sweeping losses in 2025 as a renewed U.S.-China trade conflict sharply curtailed exports to one of the state’s most important markets.
Retaliatory tariffs imposed by China in response to new U.S. duties caused export values for 13 major California commodities to collapse by nearly two-thirds, the researchers conclude.
The total value of those exports to China fell from an average of $1.55 billion over 2020–2024 to just $554 million in 2025, a decline of $999 million, or 64%. Almond exports alone dropped $228 million, pistachios fell $478 million and cotton declined by $82 million.
The conflict escalated after the U.S. imposed new tariffs last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, including a 10% baseline tariff on most trading partners and rates exceeding 100% on China. Beijing responded with steep retaliatory duties on key U.S. agricultural goods. China’s applied tariffs on almonds, wine, dairy, cotton and other California exports surged, in some cases effectively blocking market access.
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The fallout was especially severe for perennial crops like almonds and pistachios, which require years of investment before bearing fruit. Export volumes to China plunged 77% for almonds and 84% for pistachios, the authors report. Counties heavily dependent on those crops were hit hardest. Kern and Fresno counties each faced losses exceeding $200 million, with Tulare and Kings counties also sustaining substantial declines.
While some exports were diverted to alternative markets like India, the United Arab Emirates and Southeast Asia, the authors note that those outlets often offer lower prices and higher logistical costs. Rebuilding market share in China may prove difficult even if tariffs are lifted, as competitors from countries like Australia, Brazil and Chile have expanded their presence.
Federal relief programs have provided limited support. During the earlier 2018–2019 trade war, California received less than 2% of $23 billion in USDA Market Facilitation Program payments, and the new 2025 Farmer Bridge Assistance package largely prioritizes Midwestern row crops over California specialty crops.
The paper concludes that policy uncertainty and trade disruptions pose outsized risks for California’s export-oriented farm economy, warning that long-term relationships and investments are easily damaged but slow to rebuild.
